GBPUSD sell whether we vote yes or no

٢٣ يونيو ٢٠١٦

Today we have the vote in the UK and I just want to point out that IF the UK decides to remain in the EU nothing changes and the bullish response that might follow will be a relief rally and nothing more besides a good way for top traders to sell the high. IF the UK decides to leave the EU it is open season and we will go down fast. In terms of wave count we see a consolidation on the daily time frame that I counted as a corrective combination due to the fact that it invalidated the possibility to count is as a 'Flat' correction in terms of Elliott Wave. This however doesn't change much besides the fact that a wave Y can't exist out of 5 inner waves and I will therefore be looking for a completion of this correction at 1.50, or a wave B lower and then a relief rally for wave C higher.

It is very useful to keep an eye on my dollar index scenario's since both GBPUSD and EURUSD will impact the dollar index for the most part and these pairs will correlate later today.

Safe trading and it is not necessary to trade this event as I explained in my dollar index post.

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٢٤ يونيو ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

I showed some price zones in the chart that I keep in mind when looking for the end of a consolidation. The move lower was strong and in high volatile markets it is key to keep an eye on the bigger picture. The three legs lower from the high of 2014 are very harmonic in terms of extensions and retraces. Next week I will be looking for the consolidation of the bearish move as a result of Brexit and sell the continuation. However I don't want to sell GBPUSD out of no mans land in a 1700 pips range caused by Brexit. So I will use these price zones in my advantage by looking at structure confirmation out of these zones (not the other way around)

٢٥ يونيو ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

I think we will see another bullish leg in the beginning of next weeks trading to complete the consolidation of the bearish move as a result of Brexit. Buying the continuation is what I'm looking for.