News background and trading ideas for 13/11/2018

١٣ نوفمبر ٢٠١٨

Despite the day off in the USA, the dollar continued to feel quite confident. The dollar index looks much convincing, and apparently, as long as it keeps above 97, it's worth considering only options for its purchase.

On Monday nothing fateful ever happened, there were no significant macroeconomic statistics, but past week and weekends as well turned out to be very intense, so it was something to work out.

It was very volatile yesterday in pound pairs. Actually, the pound provided the opportunity to earn both sellers and buyers. Recall that we recommend both short-term pound purchases on descents for income in 100-150 points, as well as medium-term positions pointed at a positive outcome of the Brexit negotiations. Speaking of negotiations, the week started amid another round of frustrations about the progress of Brexit talks and a new wave of mistrust in their final success. It had a very negative impact on the dynamics of the pound. However, there were positive signals from the EU in the form of a statement by the EU’s main Brexit negotiator, Michelle Barnier, that the British Parliament may review the main elements of the deal on Tuesday. Anyway, the process is going and lack of confidence in his success - an opportunity for profit.

Euro has punctured significant support in pair with the dollar, so now it looks really hopeless. Issues with Italy instead of to be resolved had become are compounded. Amid all this, the only reasonable strategy here is selling the euro.

Quite symptomatic yesterday ended the day in the oil market. Even we convinced bears, were somewhat surprised by the inability of the bulls to organize a local correction. The strongest oversold amid luxurious fundamental cause (the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting in Abu Dhabi), and at the output instead of confident increase, we see another black candle on the daily chart. Despite the definite confirmation of our basic idea - the sale of oil, we are still concerned about the potential actions of OPEC and continue to recommend “stand aside” and keep an eye on the developments.

For those who are afraid to pass by the further downward rally in the oil market, we recommend selling the Russian ruble. The potential of its decrease has significantly accumulated, and the decline in oil will stimulate its implementation.

Gold had difficulties yesterday amid increasing dollar, but the points for the gold purchases are still attractive not to risk taking a long position in gold. So continue to look for points for gold purchases with small stops and solid profits.