7/5/24 - $gdlc > $bitw today
If you're inclined to buy some cheap sats and don't mind the complexities of the closed end structure, 
GDLC > bitw.
TL;DR and so you don't have to dig up my prior comment
- the green line represents approximate parity between the two. above it
BITW better. below it (where we are now) GDLC better. you're getting about a 5% improvement on spread. so if GDLC is about 29-30% to spot, BITW is only 24-25%
- my thesis here having traded these closed end vehicles for some time (all of them), is that in the event of ETH etf approval, given these are 70% btc, 20% eth and 10% chitcoins or thereabout is the allocation, you probably get a 5% discount on both the btc, eth in time and perhaps remain w a 25-30% discount on the other stuff (maybe higher). this probably puts the eventual discount to spot in the 5-10% region, round up and call it 15%. if that's the case, you capture another 15% upside to owning this vehicle and have another 15-20% juice for the ride if/when higher in the underlying.
- of course, as we r seeing these will trade even more at discount and the nominal price (of the tickers) suffer in drawdowns. no telling where btc goes. i think the low could sweep the ETF approval lows, or in the mid to low 40s w/ 30% probability. this informs why most of my powder is still dry and why i only am buying these closed end funds (the discount is juicy enough to merit owning this over physical ... for now).
- be safe.
enjoy the weekend,
V
GDLC > bitw.TL;DR and so you don't have to dig up my prior comment
- the green line represents approximate parity between the two. above it
BITW better. below it (where we are now) GDLC better. you're getting about a 5% improvement on spread. so if GDLC is about 29-30% to spot, BITW is only 24-25%- my thesis here having traded these closed end vehicles for some time (all of them), is that in the event of ETH etf approval, given these are 70% btc, 20% eth and 10% chitcoins or thereabout is the allocation, you probably get a 5% discount on both the btc, eth in time and perhaps remain w a 25-30% discount on the other stuff (maybe higher). this probably puts the eventual discount to spot in the 5-10% region, round up and call it 15%. if that's the case, you capture another 15% upside to owning this vehicle and have another 15-20% juice for the ride if/when higher in the underlying.
- of course, as we r seeing these will trade even more at discount and the nominal price (of the tickers) suffer in drawdowns. no telling where btc goes. i think the low could sweep the ETF approval lows, or in the mid to low 40s w/ 30% probability. this informs why most of my powder is still dry and why i only am buying these closed end funds (the discount is juicy enough to merit owning this over physical ... for now).
- be safe.
enjoy the weekend,
V
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