Dax week 20

٢٣ مايو ٢٠٢١

Hello everyone,

This week, I offer my analysis of the movements of GER30 during the week and my outlook for next week.
Have nice reading and be pleased to comment if you want.

So, what happens last week?
I will call last week the « mountain pass » week as said last week it may continues also next week.
Those spikes looks like a typical end of a strong uptrend. It arrives also when I started shorting GER30 in March. The buyers seems to get slowly exhausted.

This week was really similar to last week…
GER30 started a fall waiting for the a possible bad news on the US FED report. Finally, the expected news came out. It was better than expected (they talk about tappering) thus it gets up and reach the top of the start of the week.

This week, I took the opportunity given by the fall to close all my positions maybe a little bit too early (but I was expecting the range to hold a little bit more). And when it returns over 15180, I gradually sold positions in order to have my current breakeven around 15300 and an amount of almost 10% of my portfolio on GER30 in case a big event happen.

My perspective for next week:
- 20%: GER30 rise to is top 15514 and don’t go higher;
- 20%: GER30 rise over is top;
- 30% : GER30 stay in the range 15176- 15412;
- 30%: GER30 fall under 15176;

What to follow next week?
Globally:
- Indian variant is spreading all around Europe;
- Inflation: the rise of petrol (OIL to follow accurately) and other raw material;
- The US 10 years interest rates (which could also have an impact on NSDQ100);
- The transaction volumes.
Day by day:
- Monday: GER30 is closed;
- Tuesday: German GDP and Ifo Business Climate index & US CB Consumer confidence.
- Wednesday: NZD interest rates & US: Crude Oil;
- Thursday: German GFK Consumer Climate, US: initial jobless claims, GDP and Core Durable Goods Orders;
- Friday:
- Japan: Unemployment and Inflation ;
- French consumer spending & European Business climate ;
- US: Personal income, Personal spending & PCE price index/ Core PCE price index;

Little surprise: This week I decided to share with you my weekly graph on GER30, in order to show you a very old resistance which seems to be supporting GER30 over 15000 at the moment.

I wish you a good trading week,

Please feel free to ask me questions, I will be glad to connect with you over the comments or by private messages.
Stay safe,
Alexandre