Gold on Intra-day decline as expected

١٧ يناير ٢٠٢٣

Gold's general commentary: Gold has started trending upwards throughout last week's fractal on a very strong Hourly 4 chart’s Engulfing candle that broke through the immediate Resistance and should aim on the next candle at #1,927.80 - #1,933.80 Gap fill once correction is altered. As mentioned throughout my commentary, what was causing “soaring on Gold was a combination of Trade optimism (DX on losses against the Gold as safe-haven) but mostly in my opinion - Bond Yields on aggressive Selling sequence". It is no surprise that today's Resistance rejection on Gold (# -0.37%) comes with Bond Yields declining sharply after the U.S. GDP didn’t beat its forecast lately. It all depends now on how DX and Bond Yields fares into coming sessions, Daily chart is on healthy Bullish Technicals and #1,952.80 psychological benchmark remains firm Medium-term Target. Since Hourly 4 chart reached it’s maximum, I did however expected Short-term Selling opportunity (occurred over-night on Asian session) with #1,910.80 representing yesterday's session Low’s. Since U.S. market was closed throughout today’s session, I did not make any moves / however if I had to guess what may occur through current session, #1,900.80 psychological benchmark test and following rejection towards #1,921.80 once again is my pick.


Technical analysis: My estimations are pointing on probable #1,905.80 - #1,900.80 Support zone test. An negative DX reading has been priced this week and after yesterday's sharp Intra-day recovery on Bond Yields caused by Fed remarks, DX has reached Upper zone of Neutral Rectangle, which since January#10 has been reversing the Price-action. However for the session, Gold - DX correlation is not on High importance asset list since Bond Yields were rejected near Support fractal and Gold is ready to test Lower levels below yesterday's session Low. The Hourly 4 chart's Ascending Channel got invalidated downwards on one of the most aggressive Bearish candle since September #27. Once again, this move is attributed to the Bond Yields recovery and Overbought Gold's Hourly 4 chart's Technicals. Bond Yields managed to find the Support (at least for Short-term) and the recovery is applying additional Selling pressure on Gold, where Bearish spike on Gold came as no surprise.


My position: As Gold's correction may be Short-lived, #1,905.80 - #1,900.80 Support zone may be used as an excellent re-Buy point. Break of #1,900.80 psychological benchmark and market closing below is a Selling opportunity towards #1,882.80 Support extension. Overall, I do not believe that correction will be continued as #1,952.80 psychological benchmark remains my Medium-term Target. Regardless, I will Trade what market offers regardless of the direction.