Gold back within Neutral Rectangle

٣١ مايو ٢٠٢٢

Gold's general commentary: As expected, the #1,848.80 - #1,842.80 Support zone held and that gave Gold a strong boost back above both the #1,858.80 and #1,862.80. Last time Support zone practiced strong durability, Gold was on a strong uptrend on the aftermath. The Daily chart’s structure was entirely Bullish and the next Technical Target was the #1,882.80 local peak and Medium-term Resistance zone, but strong trend shift on DX interfered and distorted Technical trend. This strength for Gold is maintained despite Asian session mini decline showcasing that this was Technically but not Fundamentally backed up Bullish stance for Gold.


Technical analysis: Gold is still consolidating just below the #1,870’s local Top’s (Lower High’s trendline) but still below the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone. #1,862.80 is an ultimate Top at the moment since, acting as an strong Resistance - rejected the Price-action on multiple occasions and offered market closing below it throughout Friday’s session, not comforting Buyers early on. Monitoring the Price-action almost all session, I expected Bullish sentiment but stagnation continued (even though I was well aware of U.S. Memorial Day) and the idle session that I am witnessing is an product of it. Gold is surely Bearish on Medium-term as #1,678.80 Lower Low’s sequence is on the cards, but on the other hand - I cannot rule out the strong correction (identical as on June #29) with #1,850’s as an possible turning point, as it all depends on DX and Bond Yields developments. DX is still Trading within the Daily chart's belt instead of rising on hopes of this better macro-economic outlook, in my opinion U.S. government is presenting better economical landscape than as it is, which may skyrocket Gold once Bond Yields auction happens where Yields are expected to decline on more than # -3.50%. In essence the one works as counter to the other (Gold / DX), hence Gold stays ranged still near the middle of the Bollinger Bands on Daily chart. This confirms my impression that Gold is more tied to the movements on DX at the moment, so I will Trade accordingly and take it into consideration. The slightest Bullish reversal on DX should practice Selling pressure on Gold. If #1,840.80 - #1,838.80 Support zone breaks, Buying bias is invalidated as I will Sell Gold until the Price-action touches the Hourly 4 chart’s final Higher Low’s Support zone of #1,800’s before stabilization zone.


My position: DX dynamics on the main stage throughout the Trading week, as it extended the losses and rose towards #2-Week Low’s, and reversed on Intra-day basis and tested the #101.85 Resistance. Such movements on DX (as main correlation at the moment) are disastrous for Gold's Short-term Traders. My Buying order (#1,860.80 entry point) hit the #9 point Stop-loss as DX was on Intra-day decline, allowing me additional risk to hold the order over-night which could expose #1,870's or above, but DX reversed in form of a strong recovery and made Gold dip even more (adding Selling pressure), triggering my Stop-loss. As long as Gold continues to move within the Neutral Rectangle, such movements will be without major move, only side swings which I will chose not to Trade on. No more orders for the session. Results for the April - May cycle: #15 Profits row and #2 Stop-loss hits.