Gold long going to above 2050
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Gold Price Analysis: Testing Support Levels Amidst Consolidation and Breakout Attempts
Technical analysis reveals a retracement in gold, testing key support zones and indicating a healthy consolidation phase before an expected continuation of the uptrend.
Gold, FX Empire
Gold Forecast Video for 19.06.23 by Bruce Powers
Gold rises to a three-day high of 1,986 on Friday before pulling back. It attempted to breakout above the top boundary trendline of a small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern but is now on track to close below it and within the consolidation range.
Attempting to Break Up yet Remains in Consolidation Range
So far, Thursday’s test of the 100-Day EMA with a day’s low of 1,925 has held up but further signs of strength are needed. Gold briefly dropped below the 100-Day line earlier in the session on Thursday but managed to close strong, back above it and near the high of the day. The 100-Day EMA is now at 1,940.
Further Signs of Strength are Needed
Further signs of strength are needed to indicate whether yesterday’s low completes the retracement or further tests will occur. This week’s candlestick pattern is set to close as a bullish doji hammer. Next week an upside breakout signal will occur on a move above the high at 1,971, and the breakout is confirmed on a daily close above that high. Following a move above that high the next weekly resistance levels are 1,973, 1,983, and 1,985. A subsequent daily close above each price level will confirm strength, otherwise some resistance might be seen again around those levels.
If Lows Tested Again
If lower prices occur before a continuation higher the two potential support zones are around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,912, followed by the 200-Day EMA at 1,894. The 200-Day EMA was tested as support with a double bottom in the first quarter of this year price reversed higher from there.
Uptrend Intact
The current retracement in gold is a test of support around previous high swing high of 1,960 from early-February. So far, the retracement is normal and healthy for the uptrend. Consolidation has been occurring at the 50% retracement area as well as the 100-Day EMA. Notice that there is a greater distance between the 100-Day EMA and 200-Day than what was seen in February. It reflects an improving trend. Once this retracement is complete, all signs are that gold should continue higher.
Gold held above $1,950 an ounce on Friday after gaining 0.7% in the previous session, benefiting mainly from the dollar’s weakness as the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign at a time other major central banks are still raising interest rates. Still, the metal remains close to three-month lows as the Fed hinted at two more quarter-point rate increases this year, while the European Central Bank delivered another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled further tightening. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates this week for the first time in ten months, while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday.
Daily bullish
4H Bullish
34min Bullish
Gold is mostly traded on the OTC London market, the US futures market (COMEX) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The standard future contract is 100 troy ounces. Gold is an attractive investment during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Half of the gold consumption in the world is in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry. The biggest producers of gold are China, Australia, United States, South Africa, Russia, Peru and Indonesia. The biggest consumers of gold jewelry are India, China, United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE. The gold prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our gold prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.
Technical analysis reveals a retracement in gold, testing key support zones and indicating a healthy consolidation phase before an expected continuation of the uptrend.
Gold, FX Empire
Gold Forecast Video for 19.06.23 by Bruce Powers
Gold rises to a three-day high of 1,986 on Friday before pulling back. It attempted to breakout above the top boundary trendline of a small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern but is now on track to close below it and within the consolidation range.
Attempting to Break Up yet Remains in Consolidation Range
So far, Thursday’s test of the 100-Day EMA with a day’s low of 1,925 has held up but further signs of strength are needed. Gold briefly dropped below the 100-Day line earlier in the session on Thursday but managed to close strong, back above it and near the high of the day. The 100-Day EMA is now at 1,940.
Further Signs of Strength are Needed
Further signs of strength are needed to indicate whether yesterday’s low completes the retracement or further tests will occur. This week’s candlestick pattern is set to close as a bullish doji hammer. Next week an upside breakout signal will occur on a move above the high at 1,971, and the breakout is confirmed on a daily close above that high. Following a move above that high the next weekly resistance levels are 1,973, 1,983, and 1,985. A subsequent daily close above each price level will confirm strength, otherwise some resistance might be seen again around those levels.
If Lows Tested Again
If lower prices occur before a continuation higher the two potential support zones are around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,912, followed by the 200-Day EMA at 1,894. The 200-Day EMA was tested as support with a double bottom in the first quarter of this year price reversed higher from there.
Uptrend Intact
The current retracement in gold is a test of support around previous high swing high of 1,960 from early-February. So far, the retracement is normal and healthy for the uptrend. Consolidation has been occurring at the 50% retracement area as well as the 100-Day EMA. Notice that there is a greater distance between the 100-Day EMA and 200-Day than what was seen in February. It reflects an improving trend. Once this retracement is complete, all signs are that gold should continue higher.
Gold held above $1,950 an ounce on Friday after gaining 0.7% in the previous session, benefiting mainly from the dollar’s weakness as the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign at a time other major central banks are still raising interest rates. Still, the metal remains close to three-month lows as the Fed hinted at two more quarter-point rate increases this year, while the European Central Bank delivered another 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday and signaled further tightening. The Bank of England is also set to raise rates again at its June policy meeting, a month marked by surprise rate increases from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China lowered key short-term interest rates this week for the first time in ten months, while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy on Friday.
Daily bullish
4H Bullish
34min Bullish
Gold is mostly traded on the OTC London market, the US futures market (COMEX) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The standard future contract is 100 troy ounces. Gold is an attractive investment during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Half of the gold consumption in the world is in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry. The biggest producers of gold are China, Australia, United States, South Africa, Russia, Peru and Indonesia. The biggest consumers of gold jewelry are India, China, United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia and UAE. The gold prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our gold prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.
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Gold is Being Pulled Between a Hawkish Fed and New Geopolitical ConcernsUS Housing Surprises, Fed Pauses but Remains Hawkish
Last week, US economic data revealed a much stronger than expected housing market, with the NAHB Housing Market Index surpassing expectations to hit its highest level since July of last year. New building permits also beat market expectations, and new housing starts surged to their highest level since May 2022.
Last month, we reviewed the three possibilities of a Federal Reserve pivoting to rate cuts, continuing to hike, or pausing. The June FOMC meeting delivered our most likely scenario of a pause, which we presented as one of the better cases for gold, at least in the short term.
However, what markets received from the June FOMC meeting was a hawkish pause, in which no action was taken, while Chair Powell renewed his hawkish rhetoric, underlining his commitment to the task of bringing down inflation.
In a busy week for FOMC speakers, markets had the opportunity to digest comments from a total of six FOMC members. Jerome Powell also made his semi-annual trip to Capitol Hill, testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, and Senate Banking Committee, where he all-but confirmed that more rate hikes are in store and stated that “we don’t see rate cuts any time soon.”
Gold’s Reaction
The result of this pull between the resilience of the US economy plus a hawkish Fed on the one hand, and growing geopolitical uncertainty on the other, has resulted in muted price action despite the overall bearish trend.
We’re seeing this among investors at HYCM as well, for whom gold is one of the most popular assets this year. Positioning suggests current price action could be a period of short-term profit-taking within a longer-term bullish view.
We can see this reflected in gold’s chart. Between June 20 and 22, which saw the release of US housing data and FOMC speeches, gold prices declined by almost 2.4%.
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Fed Chair. Powell reiterated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that interest rates will rise further and that he wouldn’t take moving in consecutive meetings off the table at all, but noted that a recession in the US is not the most likely case. Nvidia was down by over 2% and Advanced Micro Devices by 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China. The Fed is also due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks, and more details on Basel III Endgame and changes to bank supervision will be in the spotlight.The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.
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The US economy grew by an annualized 2% on quarter in Q1 2023, well above 1.3% in the second estimate, and forecasts of 1.4%. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.ملاحظة
Wall Street Ends in the GreenThe Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.
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szop hit. I baought gold again after hot stopped.Am still bullishملاحظة
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd SessionThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.
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Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI DataUS stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
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US Stocks Pop on Cooling InflationAll major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.
Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
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US Futures Steady Ahead of Major Bank EarningsUS stock futures held steady on Friday after four-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors look ahead to earnings reports from major banks. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.85% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.58%, with nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ending higher led to the upside by communication services, technology and consumer discretionary. Those gains came as the latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated in June, adding to signs that US inflation is on a downward trend and raising hopes that the current tightening cycle is nearing the end. Investors now await earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi on Friday for more clues on the economy. US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also on deck.
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Week Ahead - July 17thNext week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.
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This trade is still open and activeGovernment Bond Yields Fall for 2nd Session
Government bond yields around the world fell for a second day on Tuesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, retreating to 3.76%, a level not seen since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Federal Reserve, will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 22%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. The Bank of England will decide on monetary policy in August only, but either a 25bps or a 50bps hike are seen as certain. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
The yield on the German 10-year government bond fell to 2.4%, down from the four-month high of 2.679% reached on July 10, as signs of cooling inflation in the US increased speculation that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of a series of significant interest rate hikes. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank is expected to persist with raising rates throughout the year, aiming for a deposit rate peak of 4% by year-end. However, a recent batch of weak economic data from across the region might prompt the central bank to revise its inflation forecasts in September, possibly leaving the deposit facility rate at 3.75%. Hawkish ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel expressed caution on Monday about further tightening moves in September, stating that "we will see what the data will tell us." In addition, his colleague Klaas Knot said monetary tightening beyond July’s meeting is anything but guaranteed.
Turkish Lira Weakens to Fresh Record Low
The Turkish lira weakened more than 2% to a fresh record low of 26.9 per USD, as both the central bank and state-run banks stopped supporting the currency ahead of the central bank monetary policy decision on Thursday. Most investors expect a 500bps increase in interest rates, although some market participants said the rise could be smaller. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%
Euro Hits Fresh 17-Month High
The euro strengthened its position above $1.12, reaching its highest level since February 2022, on the back of investor expectations that the European Central Bank will continue its rate-hike cycle to tackle inflation and bring it closer to the 2% target. In the Eurozone, inflation declined to a 17-month low of 5.5% in June, but the core rate remained stubbornly high at 5.4%, still close to the all-time high of 5.7% seen in March. Currently, the interest rates in the bloc stand at 3.5%, but traders anticipate rates peaking at 4% by the end of the year. However, a recent batch of weak economic data from across the region might prompt the central bank to revise its inflation forecasts in September, possibly leaving the deposit facility rate at 3.75%. Simultaneously, the recently released weaker-than-expected US inflation data has fueled speculations that the Federal Reserve is nearing the conclusion of its current policy tightening measures.
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trade is openملاحظة
trade is open.Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
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