Gold all time high

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Gold futures are trading at all time highs. Gold is up +25% YTD. Based on this GOL 4hr chart uptrend channel, I am planning a short gold trade. As you can see we are getting close to the short entry zone (or take profit if you're still long). Gold is ranked #1 asset by market cap of $17.5 Trillion. So I wouldn't want to step in front of this train prematurely. Especially if the reversal signal is a blow off top. However, based on US cumulative inflation, gold is overextended as an inflation hedge.

1 : 4 risk : reward ratio trade idea
short = 2615
stop = 2630
profit = 2555

US cumulative inflation vs gold yearly returns
YTD 2024 2.5% vs 25%
2023 3.3% vs 13%
2022 4.1% vs 0%
2021 8% vs -3.5%
2020 4.7% vs 24%
2019 1.2% vs 19%
2018 1.8% vs -2%
2017 2.4% vs 14%
2016 2.1% vs 8.5%
2015 1.3% vs -10.5%

2015 until 2024 US cumulative inflation vs gold ROI
US past 10 yrs cumulative inflation = 32.8%
Gold 10 year ROI = 149%
Gold 10 yr average ROI = 14.9% / year

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ملاحظة

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