Copper - (continued) SHORT; for now ...

٢٣ مايو ٢٠٢٣

I fail to grasp the general consensus where the overall impression seems to be that "bad technicals" but "a very pretty fundamental picture"?
LME stocks jumped +45% just since January alone! - How is that a "good" fundamental picture? (I must be missing something, especially with China not coming back, in any way resembling past demand.)
Long(er) term, one could make a case, perhaps, but only by disregarding the hole that the decline of Chinese demand will poke into global fundamentals.

On the other hand, Copper/Gold ratio looks rather bullish.

Here is a close-up;


As for the Copper/Gold Ratio;

That is definitely what bullish looks like!

Stay SHORT for now (... and then make a lot of money trading it from under 3.50 ;-)

٣٠ مايو ٢٠٢٣

تم فتح الصفقة

So far, this has been moving by the numbers, like clock work;

Let's hope this continues - with lots of money yet to be collected!
SHORT

٣١ مايو ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

So far, this one ...

... continues to play by the numbers. (Wish it was always this easy ;-) Lots of money is yet to be made here so, just keep at it!
LME stocks are at record levels and still growing. (A US recession down-spike is yet to crush this!) The only potential concern here are the managed money shorts, making this trade increasingly lopsided. (Which is why I chose to play this with synthetic puts.)

٨ يونيو ٢٠٢٣

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

This has been kindly following our numbers (arrows) ...

... and after making 50%+ on it, it's now time to just sit and watch ;-)
This is still a Short Bias here, with an undeniable US recession looming and all.

٨ يونيو ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

We are however, continue to watch Copper/Gold closely ...

... as the model suggests there should be quite an opportunity towards the end of the summer.

١٢ يونيو ٢٠٢٣

تم فتح الصفقة

I forgot to update this earlier;

This is a strong SHORT here.

٢١ يونيو ٢٠٢٣

تم فتح الصفقة

No China stimulus, stronger USD, LME stocks sky high ... Who could've foreseen all of that?! ;-) So, until Cooper is discovered to be a cure for cancer ...

... this is a SHORT

٢٥ يونيو ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

Boom!!

This is just getting under way (SHORT)!

... and here, together with it's "evil cousin" - HG/GC;

... pointing the way to a not-so-soft-landing (i.e., the life sciences' equivalent of: exceedingly-more-than-just-somewhat-pregnant.)

١٨ يوليو ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

To say that Copper has been going by-the-numbers this year, would be an understatement;

Lot of money already made and yet to be collected here.
If not already SHORT, now would be a good time.