LTC/USD (BITS) 20 MA crossing the 9 MA in a bearish pattern

١٢ مايو ٢٠١٨

The 20-period moving average (MA) has crossed over the 9-period moving average 4x times according to daily price chart between last December (2017) and now.

Each of the 4x times, price historically followed with a decline by over 20% - one such instance (the 3rd crossing) by over 62%.

Based on the daily chart, the 20-period MA will be approaching the 9-period MA in what appears to be signaling the fifth bearish crossover.

(1)


(2 & 3)


(4)


(5?)

١٤ مايو ٢٠١٨

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It has begun

١٥ مايو ٢٠١٨

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Increased selling commences....

١٦ مايو ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Selling continues...

١٧ مايو ٢٠١٨

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And continues....

١٩ مايو ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

I've altered the trajectory of the current path - I believe there will still be a similar outcome, the 20 remains of the 9 and any indication that this pattern could reverse to bullish would be the current candle showing strength above the 9-day.

As we can see here, even as the 9-da7 begins to curve up, the candle on the day is not strongly pushing up. More of a Doji formation showing indecision and an equivalent amount of selling.

١٩ مايو ٢٠١٨

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To further elaborate on my concept here - study the price action [candle stick pattern(s)] relative to the 9-period MA starting on 12/18/2018.

(1) I've highlighted with a red bordered box each time a bearish candle signals a crossing. Notice how each time a bearish candle violates the 9-period MA serving as support (blue) the 20-period crosses over the 9 (orange), and soon after is followed by an even greater price decline.

(2) Conversely, highlighted in a greed bordered box are bullish candle(s) signaling a crossing. On most instances, when LTC is trading under the 9-period MA (blue) and price breaks through the resistance it delineates, the 9-period subsequently crosses over the 20 (orange) and a bullish rally ensues.

*POINTS TO TAKE IN - The analysis lends itself to being more favorable (or having greater accuracy) in forecasting bearish signals (or when the 20 (orange) MA crosses the 9 (blue) MA).

Bullish rallies appear to have had more "false breaks" as pointed out with the callouts, but I've used red arrows to show how the 9-period MA serves as resistance for LTC when price trades beneath it.

Of course, additional factors can be taken into account. And no one person should ever base a trade signal off a single indicator. For example, when we had those two false bull breaks, the trend was still in a narrowed supply range as outlined by the descending distal and proximal red lines. This would suggest that the overriding trend should be weighted heavier in one's analysis when considering the macro circumstance.

Still holding my 127-123 forecast within the next week (or two).

٢٢ مايو ٢٠١٨

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LTC tried to retest the 9-period MA but failed causing further down turn towards a new low in progress. Price target incoming.

٢٣ مايو ٢٠١٨

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We have officially been filled this morning. Stop losses placed around the 120 mark.

Happy Trading