LTC in Depth Technical Analysis and trade journal. Week of 4/8/1
تم تحديثه
Trader Noxtreme back, hitting the reset button as we start a new weekly candle. I am finding a journal approach helpful for my published ideas so if you are finding it helpful also or if you want to join in PLEASE LIKE, SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT. We are here to learn and grow as traders so do a good thing and share your strategies and ideas with us.
So let’s jump into it.
New weekly candles start on Monday (if you are in the US) so it seems fitting that Monday should be our in depth day.
So here we are and let’s get into it.
LTC
On the WEEKLY I am comparing this move to the initial move that started the 2017 run. The similarities are notable but so are the differences. RSI was coming DOWN in 2017 but it was still higher at 86. We were just slightly oversold at 71 at this last peak. Seems likely we will pull back but maybe not near as far as we did in 17 because we are not as oversold. 75-60 looks reasonable in the next two weeks but as we will see when we zoom in to shorter term time frames, getting this low would be indication of the trend turning back in the bearish direction.
On the LTC daily we have overbought 76 RSI and what looks to be a downward sloping resistance. The moving averages are diverging quickly. We are still solidly in an uptrend for the 12, 26, 50 MA and the 200 is just starting to curve up. This is a very good sign that we are changing the trend from bearish to bullish long term but odds are in favor of consolidation before we make another move up. The pattern on the chart could be a HUGE bull flag descending triangle but RSI, historical trends, previous price action in this range and how far we ran up all point to a pull back in the near term. The only things I see that could break this pattern bullish in the near term are market sentiment and news (these are positive forces right now). We can also see that the 4 hr and 1 hr charts will be tightening range equilibriums by looking at the pattern on the daily. Two last things stand out to me on the daily; declining volume and lack of support but increasing resistance near the 100 mark. 100 in getting harder to break.
I am left with these conclusions: likely downward pressure for the next few days to bring the longer term RSIs back into range where we can run again. Shorter term time frames should give us clues as to direction and timing that this equilibrium will break.
Jumping into the 4hr we see what appears to be an ascending triangle bull flag with a base of support between 80.91 and 77.59. Being that our RSI is at 52 we could test this area but it would be a red flag if it breaks because we would lose the 12, 26, and 50 MA and break the bottom of our triangle bearish. The two most notable things here are that our new overhead resistance trend line meets our previous ascending channel resistance line at 77.59. This tells me that this area should be the lowest point to consider ourselves still in equilibrium. Volume is going to be our lead indicator as to where we go next on this chart. RSI under 35 on the 4 hr would be a buy signal for me as it has held as support for nearly the entire uptrend starting Feb 19 2019
Finally our hourly for all the traders out there. We are clearly trying to hold the support of this equilibrium at 87.04 but we have tested this 5times and broke it 3 times definitely if you ignore the initial volatility within about 12 hours of the initial peak. Our RSI is pushing oversold and there is a strong case for accumulation between 35 and 30 rsi as we have held 30 RSI on the hourly since March 21st. Unless there is some kind of bad news I don’t expect us to break this trend as we consolidate in this triangle. Volume is nonexistent and wicks have gotten very short. MacD is curling up to try and go short term bullish again but it seems likely we will bounce off the 26 MA and move into the next range down at 84.19 to 87.04 (green box). Support under this is WEAK so my gut is telling me that we will wick into the yellow box range of 77.59 to 80.91 bouncing the RSI off 30 when we do but this may not be for a few days as we have plenty of room left under our sloping resistance.
I will be focusing on volume and RSI over the next few days. 35 or less on the 1 hr RSI will have me looking for a short term entry. Pushing down to 78-77.50 would have me considering long positions if we don’t have some crazy bad news catalyst.
That’s my story and I’m going to try and stick to it better this time. I over traded last week for sure leading to small unnecessary losses.
PLEASE LIKE SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT if this helps you out or you have something you see that I missed.
So let’s jump into it.
New weekly candles start on Monday (if you are in the US) so it seems fitting that Monday should be our in depth day.
So here we are and let’s get into it.
LTC
On the WEEKLY I am comparing this move to the initial move that started the 2017 run. The similarities are notable but so are the differences. RSI was coming DOWN in 2017 but it was still higher at 86. We were just slightly oversold at 71 at this last peak. Seems likely we will pull back but maybe not near as far as we did in 17 because we are not as oversold. 75-60 looks reasonable in the next two weeks but as we will see when we zoom in to shorter term time frames, getting this low would be indication of the trend turning back in the bearish direction.
On the LTC daily we have overbought 76 RSI and what looks to be a downward sloping resistance. The moving averages are diverging quickly. We are still solidly in an uptrend for the 12, 26, 50 MA and the 200 is just starting to curve up. This is a very good sign that we are changing the trend from bearish to bullish long term but odds are in favor of consolidation before we make another move up. The pattern on the chart could be a HUGE bull flag descending triangle but RSI, historical trends, previous price action in this range and how far we ran up all point to a pull back in the near term. The only things I see that could break this pattern bullish in the near term are market sentiment and news (these are positive forces right now). We can also see that the 4 hr and 1 hr charts will be tightening range equilibriums by looking at the pattern on the daily. Two last things stand out to me on the daily; declining volume and lack of support but increasing resistance near the 100 mark. 100 in getting harder to break.
I am left with these conclusions: likely downward pressure for the next few days to bring the longer term RSIs back into range where we can run again. Shorter term time frames should give us clues as to direction and timing that this equilibrium will break.
Jumping into the 4hr we see what appears to be an ascending triangle bull flag with a base of support between 80.91 and 77.59. Being that our RSI is at 52 we could test this area but it would be a red flag if it breaks because we would lose the 12, 26, and 50 MA and break the bottom of our triangle bearish. The two most notable things here are that our new overhead resistance trend line meets our previous ascending channel resistance line at 77.59. This tells me that this area should be the lowest point to consider ourselves still in equilibrium. Volume is going to be our lead indicator as to where we go next on this chart. RSI under 35 on the 4 hr would be a buy signal for me as it has held as support for nearly the entire uptrend starting Feb 19 2019
Finally our hourly for all the traders out there. We are clearly trying to hold the support of this equilibrium at 87.04 but we have tested this 5times and broke it 3 times definitely if you ignore the initial volatility within about 12 hours of the initial peak. Our RSI is pushing oversold and there is a strong case for accumulation between 35 and 30 rsi as we have held 30 RSI on the hourly since March 21st. Unless there is some kind of bad news I don’t expect us to break this trend as we consolidate in this triangle. Volume is nonexistent and wicks have gotten very short. MacD is curling up to try and go short term bullish again but it seems likely we will bounce off the 26 MA and move into the next range down at 84.19 to 87.04 (green box). Support under this is WEAK so my gut is telling me that we will wick into the yellow box range of 77.59 to 80.91 bouncing the RSI off 30 when we do but this may not be for a few days as we have plenty of room left under our sloping resistance.
I will be focusing on volume and RSI over the next few days. 35 or less on the 1 hr RSI will have me looking for a short term entry. Pushing down to 78-77.50 would have me considering long positions if we don’t have some crazy bad news catalyst.
That’s my story and I’m going to try and stick to it better this time. I over traded last week for sure leading to small unnecessary losses.
PLEASE LIKE SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT if this helps you out or you have something you see that I missed.
ملاحظة
A quick update. I bought three positions on that drop. I am thinking about scaling in about 2000 dollars to LTC total. I have about 1100 with a cost average of $81. Its probably pennies to a lot of you.Its been interesting. We rejected from the 26 on the 1 hr like I said we would above and dropped HARD shortly after. I picked up a few LTC when RSI got below 35 on the 1 hr like I said I would above. THEN WE REALLY DROPPED. So I moved to my longer entry 4 hr chart and got my fills down at 77.90 again like I said I would above. This was a larger order then my 1 hr chart fills.
LTC has shown some pretty bearish volatility since the big drop so it has been tough to trust my bullish trade but now that we are HOLDING the lowest level to maintain a bullish outlook I'm feeling a bit more comfortable. Now that volatility is calming.
Here is my current Game plan.
Holding the position for now with a plan to average down with the rest of my LTC position if we get another leg down and oversold (30 or less rsi on the 4 hr). This position would be all the way 65-62 so its a pretty risky play considering this is ONLY THE FIRST HIGHER HIGH on the macro chart and there is nothing that says we cant go back to lower low on the macro.
If we go that bearish I will be considering a longer term swing based on LTC halving ideas but I have a bullish position so obviously I don't think we will fall back into our long term bear trend. If anyone says they can tell you definitively we are going to go back long term bear I would love to see their data showing this because at this point the weekly chart looks about as bullish as S&P looks bearish on a very macro level.
Please like and subscribe if this is helping you.
Also I was given feedback that I need to simplify my charts. If you agree, please comment because I can.
ملاحظة
Right now our technical bullish outlook is primarily based on our weekly chart comparing 2017 bull run start to now.If we get a weekly candle close below 60.27 I will be quite concerned for any remaining bulls. If we close the week below 47.19 I will become 50/50 on bullish to bearish.
Alternatively if we go up from here or we hold 60.27 and then bounce off that level, I might increase my position size more. If this is history rhyming then what comes after the break of 100 is bigger way bigger then the run up to it.
ملاحظة
Sold at 82.90. Only 2.3% profit or 26 bucks. Had an interesting order glitch on coinbase that cause me to stop out before I wanted missing some upside. Order filled at trigger price and not limit price. Not supposed to do that and cost me about $14 in profit which is a bummer.Have since re-entered a very small in LTC. Might just let that one ride overnight because it is only 2 coins.
At this junction we will move back down into the range we came from 80-76 or back up to the 87-93 range could be tomorrow or it could bounce in this range for a while. I will attempt to gain a better grasp on what we might see next week tomorrow when I do a new in depth analysis. Hope anyone following this made money as well.
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