MGIC, 50-day MA moved above its 200-day MA

A buy signal is generated. I found 5 similar cases where MGIC's 50-day Moving Average crossed above its 200-day Moving Average. In 5 out of 5 cases its price rose further within (more than 4%) during the subsequent month. It means that the odds of a continued Uptrend are 100% but if I give a discount 10% for the uncertainty then the odds of success are 90%.