Impeachment Trump - a time bomb for the US stock market

١٩ ديسمبر ٢٠١٩

In our previous reviews, we have repeatedly spoken about the bubble that swelled in the US stock market and that the sale of shares of American companies or the stock market as a whole is a unique trading opportunity that happens 1-2 times in trading life. Accordingly, to miss such an opportunity is simply a crime against trading.

There are more and more signs of impending collapse (see our previous reviews). The stock market has not fallen yet, because the Fed is taking completely desperate steps to keep it afloat (referring to the sharp inflation of the Fed's balance sheet due to operations in the repo market of up to $ 500 billion this is an injection of money into the US financial market). The scale of cash injections is horrifying - the Fed is serious about increasing its balance by 10% soon. This cannot go on for long. We will talk about the consequences of such a policy in our next review.

Today we will focus on the main event of the current week, the consequences of which can affect for years. We are talking about the impeachment of Trump and a successful vote on this issue in the US House of Representatives.

We want to note that there will be no immediate effect since this whole procedure does not aim to remove Trump from the post of President, but rather is an act to discredit Trump and the Republicans as a whole. The majority in the Senate are Republicans. Not a single Republican voted for, the Senate will fail to vote. That is, in terms of the current Presidency, Trump is not in danger.

But the damage to his image and the image of the Republican Party, which he represents, will be colossal.

That is, the chances of the Democrats winning the US Presidential election are sharply increasing.

For the US stock market, this could be the verdict and the end of the bull market era.

Recall, the US stock market owes much to its growth to Trump and his policy, starting from lowering corporate income tax (from 34% to 21%, which led to a sharp increase in company buyback programs and provoked an increase in demand in the US stock market) ending with upholding the interests of US producers (trade wars were unleashed for this purpose). And in general, the Republican agenda is to protect big business, which plays into the hands of the stock market.

The advent of the Democrats means a sharp turn in public policy, which will lead to the disappearance of favourable conditions for the US stock market. Against the backdrop of an overbought market, this will be enough for a reversing and the start of sales.

Thus, the impeachment of Trump is a kind of time bomb laid under the US stock market. According to Stanley Druckenmiller, one of the most successful American investors, “a change of leadership in the White House will mean the advent of anti-capitalists. Which will trigger the transition of the US stock market to the bearish phase. ”

Recall that we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scope of the correction ( rather the bearish phase of the market) is from 50% and above. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).