مؤشر Nifty 50تم تحديثه Is there a Head & Shoulders pattern emerging - like in 2008?
A contrarian view (to the bulls):
When we are in bullish markets, we do not like to see indicators that could lead to a bearish signal. Its the emotional part of our investing. We try to plot parallel lines connecting the tops and bottoms, and then force ourselves predicting the trend.
One of the things that we forget is a possibility of a reversal. Normally, a Head & Shoulders pattern generally indicate a reversal of a bullish trend (reverse H&S reverses a bearish trend).
As the chart above indicates, no doubt the rising trend line connecting bottoms, but note the sharply falling trend line connecting the recent tops. Also, a clear head (recent all time high) and the right shoulder developing (around 10550) - albeit, the right shoulder is very disturbed, unlike the left shoulder - a pattern that was similar when the global markets fell in 2008.
There is a good chance that this can take Nifty to close to 10030 (reached on 6 Dec) by around 7 March, and to further lower levels around 9700 later this year (some assembly election results later in the year will provide fodder for this thought). From there, the markets may reverse to rise again.
Apart from the pure technical analysis, one can add the factor that if FIIs continue selling in March (last month before the LTCG comes into play and if global bond yields continue to rise in next 1-2 weeks too), then the above becomes a reality.
Somehow, for the markets to reverse and rise this month, I dont see any clear positive triggers.
Well, I am not an expert chartist, nor am I an investment advisor, so keep this analysis purely for academic purpose.
(I am posting first time on this site - dont know if the chart gets attached automatically to my idea. If not, please do your own analysis based on data points/dates stated above).
When we are in bullish markets, we do not like to see indicators that could lead to a bearish signal. Its the emotional part of our investing. We try to plot parallel lines connecting the tops and bottoms, and then force ourselves predicting the trend.
One of the things that we forget is a possibility of a reversal. Normally, a Head & Shoulders pattern generally indicate a reversal of a bullish trend (reverse H&S reverses a bearish trend).
As the chart above indicates, no doubt the rising trend line connecting bottoms, but note the sharply falling trend line connecting the recent tops. Also, a clear head (recent all time high) and the right shoulder developing (around 10550) - albeit, the right shoulder is very disturbed, unlike the left shoulder - a pattern that was similar when the global markets fell in 2008.
There is a good chance that this can take Nifty to close to 10030 (reached on 6 Dec) by around 7 March, and to further lower levels around 9700 later this year (some assembly election results later in the year will provide fodder for this thought). From there, the markets may reverse to rise again.
Apart from the pure technical analysis, one can add the factor that if FIIs continue selling in March (last month before the LTCG comes into play and if global bond yields continue to rise in next 1-2 weeks too), then the above becomes a reality.
Somehow, for the markets to reverse and rise this month, I dont see any clear positive triggers.
Well, I am not an expert chartist, nor am I an investment advisor, so keep this analysis purely for academic purpose.
(I am posting first time on this site - dont know if the chart gets attached automatically to my idea. If not, please do your own analysis based on data points/dates stated above).
ملاحظة
Update: 27 Feb 8am: Looks like Mr Market has defied this brief thought and risen over the right shoulder! Perhaps it was a false alarm, market does not seem to be considering future possibilities and rising without much positive triggers. Continuing bull scenario, for some more time, I guess.ملاحظة
Update 1 Mar 10am: Interesting but confusing signals given by Mr Market. On 27th, with 3 bull candle days, it briefly appeared as if the right shoulder on this H&S pattern was breaching. But immediately thereafter, things have reversed and market has failed to cross the bridge at 10630 giving a double head signal on right shoulder. With global equity selloff taking place, it looks my original idea (H&S) was perhaps closer to reality. Lets see what transpires in March.ملاحظة
Update 7 March 11.50am: My idea posted on 23 Feb posed a question whether a Head & Shoulder pattern was emerging. After a 3 session false alarm (of white candles), the pattern seems to be confirmed. Also, on that day, I had made a call of Nifty at 10030 levels for today (7 March) - and market is heading in that direction, though it may not fall that much today itself. But we cannot rule out that happening within next 2 trading days. With multiple negatives for the market coming from domestic and global angles, I think a sustained bearish trend may become a reality.ملاحظة
Hope readers have seen my alert last month, that a Head & Shoulders pattern was emerging. After about a month, this seems to be confirming. Technically, the market is unable to rise above 10500 (right shoulder) though it made one more attempt earlier this week. Fundamentally, more reasons are getting added for the bearish pattern to continue - most notable among them is the current political mess the ruling BJP govt is involved in. Its two most trusted allies, TDP which has walked out of the govt already and Shiv Sena, which has threatened to go alone in 2019. With electoral reverses in the MP constituencies belonging to the CM and DyCM and also in Bihar, MP, Rajasthan recently, the writing seems to be on the wall that the bear phase may have indeed appeared on the horizon.Many experts and analysts are trying to paint a rosy picture on the outside (just to stop a major sale perhaps!), but they too must be busy trying to "Stop Loss" and "Go Short" as the market is finding newer reasons everyday to go down.
Be careful and watchful investors - dont try to catch the falling knife.
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