NIFTY OI data study

٢١ نوفمبر ٢٠١٨

Observation 21/11/2018
Future oi reduced by 2% (No new long added by FII and mostly profit booking)

Higher increase in oi in 700c and 600C and reduction in 10800C shows nifty should probably not cross 10800 in this series

Reduction 500P and 400P shows that chanced are there that we can go towards 10400 only if 600P oi reduced it is very much possible

Will update till Nov expiry same post


*Education
Suggetion welcome

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ملاحظة

Observation 22/11/2018
Future oi reduced by 2.27%
OI UPDATE:
10400 Put 2,188,725 decreased by -152,400
10500 Put 2,978,550 decreased by -134,625
10600 Put 2,071,200 decreased by -732,900

10700 Call 3,806,250 increased by 512,475
10600 Call 3,074,850 increased by 627,375
10500 call 1,748,025 increased by 475,275

As mentioned yesterday, nifty had little room going up . any chance of nifty bounce back near 10600 give good opportunity to short. Still no major build up in Dec series.

*Education
Suggestion welcome

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ملاحظة

Observation 26/11/2018
Future OI reduced by 2.78%

OI UPDATE
10400 Put 2,703,825 increased by 515,100
10500 Put 4,233,600 increased by 1,255,050
10600 Put 3,076,800 increased by 1,005,600
10700 Put 956,700 Increased by 75,900

10500 1,530,450 Call decreased by -217,575
10600 2,284,350 Call decreased by -790,500
10700 3,254,700 Call decreased by -551,550
10800 2,865,075 Call decreased by -255,900

yesterday Logic was gone wrong. Reason avoided nifty open interest which was still at 3 lac + .

Still OI is at 2.96 Lac so expecting range bound market . Based on OI data Call Oi reduced and put oi increased showing limited downsize but as market is near expiry may be we should 10600 to 10700.
*Education
Suggestion welcome

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ملاحظة

Observation 27/11/2018
Nov Future OI reduced by 18% but Dec Future OI increased by 44K OI (79%)

OI UPDATE
10400 Put 2,522,775 decreased by -181,050
10500 Put 3,839,250 decreased by -394,350
10600 Put 3,529,125 increased by 452,325
10700 Put 1,266,525 Increased by 309,825

10500 call 916,650 decreased by -613,800
10600 call 1,789,725 decreased by -494,625
10700 call 2,630,475 decreased by -624,225
10800 call 2,390,625 decreased by -474,450

As mentioned yesterday due to high OI Operator will like to book profit at higher end of range (10500 to 10700).

Today on call side OI has been decrease which shows chance of nifty going up. call side 10700 oi is high which can work as a resistance.
On put side nifty OI increased in 10600 and 10700 which will serve good support but 10700 has less OI so Mostly expiry will be above 10600.

Nifty has gap above 10752 and 200 DMA so not expecting nifty to cross the same in current scenario.

Conclusion: Nifty Should be in range of 10600 to 10751.

٢٨ نوفمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Observation 28/11/2018
Nov Future OI reduced by 27% but Dec Future OI increased by 63K OI (62%)

OI UPDATE
10400 Put 2,090,475 decreased by -432,300
10500 Put 3,459,750 decreased by -379,500
10600 Put 3,170,325 decreased by -358,800
10700 Put 2,346,300 Increased by 1,079,775

10500 call 591,450 decreased by -325,200
10600 call 1,384,950 decreased by -404,775
10700 call 1,975,350 decreased by -655,125
10800 call 2,862,675 increased by 472,050

Call side : 10600 and 10700 has high OI so downside seems limited.
Put Side: 10800 has highest oi . Does not seems that it will be closed.

Conclusion Nifty Should be range bound between 10700 to 10800

Fii are buyers from last 10 days and in Nov month total cash buy is around 45K which seems Good.

For Dec series highest oi is at 10500 Put and 11K call which suggest good upmove.
interestingly 11k call has 22Lac oi which reduced today and 11K put oi has 25 lac oi which suggest December month should be good for market at this moment. Will create new thread for Dec expiry