NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

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The past week saw another strong up move triggering the stops above 19350 and scaled a new ATH of 19523. As noted in the earlier Blogs, above 19350 the stops would have got triggered to stretch the move to 19523.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 289 points viz. between 19234 and 19523
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
  
• Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  
• Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
  
• The Index has taken sufficient time to consolidate between 18700 &18880 before breaking out which is considered a good sign
  
• Index may find supports at 19240,19190,19050, 18 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 19420, 19530,19670
  

Additional interesting observations

• The Index is entering positive territory and may remain positive till we see a weekly close below 18760
  
• There has been a few Gaps created in this bull run
  
• 18818-18908 (28th Jun 23)
  
• 18972-19079 (29th July 23)
  
• 19189-19246 (3rd July 23)
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17990
  
• A word of caution
  
• Be aware of the Gaps made during the up move
  
• Index is moving in an ascending channel having a depth of about 700 points. The top of the channel at 19670 and the lower end at 18970 and median at 19320
  
• Currently the Index is around the mid-point of the channel
  
• Post Covid 19 crash in Mar 20, we have seen positive candles in the month of July. It remains to be seen if this would continue in this year as well
  
• The Index has achieved a fresh mile stone and seem to have trouble crossing 19520 as seen from daily charts
  
• A consolidation would prove the strength of the move
  
• Expected to consolidate remain in the range of 19030-19640 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  
• A daily close below 19030 would see the Index drift towards 18880
  
• Need to remain vigilant as drag can be on both sides.
  
  

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.