9th Oct ’23 - Israel's War changes sentiment - PostMortem Nifty
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “For Monday, I wish to continue my neutral stance but keep my options open for bullish moves. The moment 19776 is tested and broken — we can expect further participation to take Nifty much ahead. For the bears to make a comeback — the US markets have to close in DEEP RED today.”
Nifty opened mega gap-down due to the shocking developments over the weekend. Israel declared it is in a state of war after Hamas fired rockets and took hostage Israeli citizens - source. No one was expecting this sharp reversal in global macro. In fact, US markets closed last Friday pretty strong.
Since I am not a Geo-political expert - I have no comments on what will happen, but the financial markets usually do not like uncertainty. The greatest risk right now is crude oil as the war is in the Middle East. If other countries join this battle - the risk of further escalation cannot be ruled out and the biggest victim could be the developing countries that import OIL.
Even though the chart may confuse you, we only fell 0.86% ~ 168pts in the opening 10mts and that was the low for the day. The recovery was sharp and decent and we made it up to the 61.8% retracement level. From there we started falling but gradually. There again the low set in the initial 10mts still untouched. I had to go short today - not just because the chart told me, but because I thought fundamentally the perceived risk could be much higher. Already our markets have outperformed the global peers - and this risk-on should have prompted the FIIs to pull out more money. We might have to wait for a few days for more clarity to emerge, so I thought to take some risks with some long PUT options.
The 1hr chart does not show a direction yet. If 19446 was taken out today - it would have shown bearishness - but it is neutral. For true bearishness 19350 or the recent swing low has to be taken out tomorrow. Well, I have a bearish bias because of the LONG PUT option - but the charts are not showing anything so far. If we bounce back from the 19446 level tomorrow also - I may be forced to close out the position at a loss. For tomorrow I would like to go with a 50% neutral and 50% bearish option. Nifty is not technically weak - it is the global macro that is weak. In the battle for technical analysis versus fundamental analysis - fundamental always wins especially when accompanied by strong news-flow.
Recap from yesterday: “For Monday, I wish to continue my neutral stance but keep my options open for bullish moves. The moment 19776 is tested and broken — we can expect further participation to take Nifty much ahead. For the bears to make a comeback — the US markets have to close in DEEP RED today.”
Nifty opened mega gap-down due to the shocking developments over the weekend. Israel declared it is in a state of war after Hamas fired rockets and took hostage Israeli citizens - source. No one was expecting this sharp reversal in global macro. In fact, US markets closed last Friday pretty strong.
Since I am not a Geo-political expert - I have no comments on what will happen, but the financial markets usually do not like uncertainty. The greatest risk right now is crude oil as the war is in the Middle East. If other countries join this battle - the risk of further escalation cannot be ruled out and the biggest victim could be the developing countries that import OIL.
Even though the chart may confuse you, we only fell 0.86% ~ 168pts in the opening 10mts and that was the low for the day. The recovery was sharp and decent and we made it up to the 61.8% retracement level. From there we started falling but gradually. There again the low set in the initial 10mts still untouched. I had to go short today - not just because the chart told me, but because I thought fundamentally the perceived risk could be much higher. Already our markets have outperformed the global peers - and this risk-on should have prompted the FIIs to pull out more money. We might have to wait for a few days for more clarity to emerge, so I thought to take some risks with some long PUT options.
The 1hr chart does not show a direction yet. If 19446 was taken out today - it would have shown bearishness - but it is neutral. For true bearishness 19350 or the recent swing low has to be taken out tomorrow. Well, I have a bearish bias because of the LONG PUT option - but the charts are not showing anything so far. If we bounce back from the 19446 level tomorrow also - I may be forced to close out the position at a loss. For tomorrow I would like to go with a 50% neutral and 50% bearish option. Nifty is not technically weak - it is the global macro that is weak. In the battle for technical analysis versus fundamental analysis - fundamental always wins especially when accompanied by strong news-flow.
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