Nifty- A Bull Trap unfolding??

Is this a Bull Trap? Will Nifty Create a new ATH next year or will it come crashing down?

Scenario 1: Nifty breaks out of 25200, consolidates a bit and begins the upward journey.

Scenario 2: Nifty breaches 25200 and gets all the hapless retailers onboard the Bus before plummetting to 22000.

What are your thoughts? Which scenario is more likely to happen? Please comment your thoughts and opinions.