Nifty Eyeing 15900+ close with a 100+ point bounce
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -02-08-21
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15874.9 / 15892.9 / 15834.65 / 15885.15 [+122.1 / +0.77%]
Trading Range Low to High: 58 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 29 points
India VIX: 12.81 / +0.08%
FII DII activities: -34 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Once again the opening 5-minute candle had movements that almost covered the grinding moves of the entire day.
And yet another close which is around the opening high although for good reasons it is slightly above the opening high.
Nifty crawled through the day after opening on a strong note except the usual FII sell-off time of 1400h when it fell 40 odd points but recovered sharply to close at higher levels.
Nifty has now made higher highs and higher lows and has taken support above the 20 DMA so that is likely to act as a support going forward.
TOP 3 LOSERS
UPL - After breaching the 50 DMA on Friday, it fell further as it failed to even breach the earlier close. The RSI on daily charts has fallen significantly and if it does not bounce off from here which is the mini support area, further drop to 745-50 area may be on the cards.
TATA STEEL - After a dream run, the scrip encountered profit booking on the 2nd day in running as it failed to retest the Friday high and even breached the low. RSI is still bullish so the overall trend may be intact.
BAJAJ FINSERV - Though unrelated to TATA STEEL, it has identical candles and the reading is also similar.
TOP 3 GAINERS
SHREECEM - An usual candidate for the spot, it has made a good move with volume and momentum after breaching the 50 DMA. It is now right in the resistance zone but the force with which it has risen indicates that it may clear it this time.
TITAN - Another infrequent visitor to the spot, it is now back in the resistance zone but the volumes are not high so wait and watch for now.
EICHER MOTORS - Yet another infrequent visitor to this club, it has taken support from the mini base and is now heading into the resistance of 20 DMA. It needs to be seen whether it clears or fails to do so.
POSITIVES
HDFC did not behave in an unruly manner post its results and managed to end the day on the 200 DMA with a spinning top candle with higher volume. This helped Nifty bounce back from the lows.
RELIANCE, INFOSYS, TCS, AXISBANK & MARUTI supported Nifty and helped it stay well above the opening low.
Nifty has finally managed to clear 15835 with a good distance and it took support from the line as it was the low for the day.
NEGATIVES
HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, and KOTAK BANK underperformed yet again. KOTAK BANK appeared to be doing well, but was inspired by the negativity in HDFC BANK and fell from the day high in late trades.
Nifty could not even retest 15900 levels and turned around from 15892 which indicates that FIIs are sitting with selling volumes around that level and unless a strong gap-up with momentum is seen on 3-8-21, we may once again be in a range-bound zone.
TRADING RANGE FOR 03-08-21
Nifty support, for now, is at 15770-800-835. And resistances every few points. No point mentioning those again and again unless a close above 16000 takes place.
BANKNIFTY support range 34400-500 and resistance 34800-35000. Unless there is a break-out or down, the range-bound behavior is likely to continue.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
FIIs relentless selling even on a day when Nifty ended +122 points. Today, for a change, DIIs have almost matched their buying with FIIs selling. I am really curious to know how come to these end up so close on many days - of course in the opposite direction?
FIIs would have bought in huge quantities over the last several months that they are still selling when Nifty is now 100+ points away from 16000.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
2-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15874.9 / 15892.9 / 15834.65 / 15885.15 [+122.1 / +0.77%]
Trading Range Low to High: 58 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 29 points
India VIX: 12.81 / +0.08%
FII DII activities: -34 Crores
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
Once again the opening 5-minute candle had movements that almost covered the grinding moves of the entire day.
And yet another close which is around the opening high although for good reasons it is slightly above the opening high.
Nifty crawled through the day after opening on a strong note except the usual FII sell-off time of 1400h when it fell 40 odd points but recovered sharply to close at higher levels.
Nifty has now made higher highs and higher lows and has taken support above the 20 DMA so that is likely to act as a support going forward.
TOP 3 LOSERS
UPL - After breaching the 50 DMA on Friday, it fell further as it failed to even breach the earlier close. The RSI on daily charts has fallen significantly and if it does not bounce off from here which is the mini support area, further drop to 745-50 area may be on the cards.
TATA STEEL - After a dream run, the scrip encountered profit booking on the 2nd day in running as it failed to retest the Friday high and even breached the low. RSI is still bullish so the overall trend may be intact.
BAJAJ FINSERV - Though unrelated to TATA STEEL, it has identical candles and the reading is also similar.
TOP 3 GAINERS
SHREECEM - An usual candidate for the spot, it has made a good move with volume and momentum after breaching the 50 DMA. It is now right in the resistance zone but the force with which it has risen indicates that it may clear it this time.
TITAN - Another infrequent visitor to the spot, it is now back in the resistance zone but the volumes are not high so wait and watch for now.
EICHER MOTORS - Yet another infrequent visitor to this club, it has taken support from the mini base and is now heading into the resistance of 20 DMA. It needs to be seen whether it clears or fails to do so.
POSITIVES
HDFC did not behave in an unruly manner post its results and managed to end the day on the 200 DMA with a spinning top candle with higher volume. This helped Nifty bounce back from the lows.
RELIANCE, INFOSYS, TCS, AXISBANK & MARUTI supported Nifty and helped it stay well above the opening low.
Nifty has finally managed to clear 15835 with a good distance and it took support from the line as it was the low for the day.
NEGATIVES
HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK, and KOTAK BANK underperformed yet again. KOTAK BANK appeared to be doing well, but was inspired by the negativity in HDFC BANK and fell from the day high in late trades.
Nifty could not even retest 15900 levels and turned around from 15892 which indicates that FIIs are sitting with selling volumes around that level and unless a strong gap-up with momentum is seen on 3-8-21, we may once again be in a range-bound zone.
TRADING RANGE FOR 03-08-21
Nifty support, for now, is at 15770-800-835. And resistances every few points. No point mentioning those again and again unless a close above 16000 takes place.
BANKNIFTY support range 34400-500 and resistance 34800-35000. Unless there is a break-out or down, the range-bound behavior is likely to continue.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
FIIs relentless selling even on a day when Nifty ended +122 points. Today, for a change, DIIs have almost matched their buying with FIIs selling. I am really curious to know how come to these end up so close on many days - of course in the opposite direction?
FIIs would have bought in huge quantities over the last several months that they are still selling when Nifty is now 100+ points away from 16000.
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
2-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
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