Nifty yet again fails to clear 17750 and ends below 17700
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -04-10-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for the upcoming week. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
NIFTY
O
H
L
C
C - PC
H-L
VIX
FII
DII
Net
Cum
Likely Open
4-10-21
17,615.55
17,750.90
17,581.35
17,691.25
159.20
169.55
16.74
860
228
1,088
1,088
Flat to positive
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
The US markets ended the week in good green so it was natural for our indices to open in the green with a gap-up which was quite good and sustained as well.
Nifty ended the upside movement as soon as it hit 15750 and for the 4th time in the last few days, it turned around from around 17750 levels.
And then, a mini sell-off started and Nifty never recovered from there despite making an attempt to close above 17700.
Finally, it settled for the day below 17700.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
RELIANCE
21.00
GRASIM
4.00
BAJAJ FINANCE
19.00
CIPLA
3.00
DIVIS LABS
19.00
HUL
3.00
BAJAJ FINSERV
18.00
IOC
2.00
ICICI BANK
10.00
TITAN
1.00
87.00
13.00
NET
74.00
POSITIVES
Nifty closed above the 20 MA line.
Nifty ended the day just below 17700.
Reliance was firm throughout the day and helped Nifty stay at higher levels.
Bank Nifty also managed to close above 37500 levels.
VIX has fallen below 18.
NEGATIVES
Hdfc fell 40+ points from its day high which was at an intraday resistance.
Hdfc Bank also failed to hold 1600 levels on a closing basis.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE PERIOD 5-8 Oct 21:
Nifty - 17400-450 Support is strong for now. Resistances are at 17700-750.
BANK NIFTY - 37000-37200 Support and 37800-38000 as the key resistance areas.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
VIX has fallen below 18 indicating limited downside potential, but more sideways movement.
Based on my Swing trading process, I bought Larsen & Toubro in 1720 CE when the spot was around 1704. I had to pay 51 for the option. The spot ended the day at 1715.25, up by 11 points, and the Option decayed by 1 point. This was clearly the outcome of a falling VIX and the impact was more than severe in my view.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
4-10-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for the upcoming week. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
NIFTY
O
H
L
C
C - PC
H-L
VIX
FII
DII
Net
Cum
Likely Open
4-10-21
17,615.55
17,750.90
17,581.35
17,691.25
159.20
169.55
16.74
860
228
1,088
1,088
Flat to positive
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
The US markets ended the week in good green so it was natural for our indices to open in the green with a gap-up which was quite good and sustained as well.
Nifty ended the upside movement as soon as it hit 15750 and for the 4th time in the last few days, it turned around from around 17750 levels.
And then, a mini sell-off started and Nifty never recovered from there despite making an attempt to close above 17700.
Finally, it settled for the day below 17700.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
RELIANCE
21.00
GRASIM
4.00
BAJAJ FINANCE
19.00
CIPLA
3.00
DIVIS LABS
19.00
HUL
3.00
BAJAJ FINSERV
18.00
IOC
2.00
ICICI BANK
10.00
TITAN
1.00
87.00
13.00
NET
74.00
POSITIVES
Nifty closed above the 20 MA line.
Nifty ended the day just below 17700.
Reliance was firm throughout the day and helped Nifty stay at higher levels.
Bank Nifty also managed to close above 37500 levels.
VIX has fallen below 18.
NEGATIVES
Hdfc fell 40+ points from its day high which was at an intraday resistance.
Hdfc Bank also failed to hold 1600 levels on a closing basis.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE PERIOD 5-8 Oct 21:
Nifty - 17400-450 Support is strong for now. Resistances are at 17700-750.
BANK NIFTY - 37000-37200 Support and 37800-38000 as the key resistance areas.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
VIX has fallen below 18 indicating limited downside potential, but more sideways movement.
Based on my Swing trading process, I bought Larsen & Toubro in 1720 CE when the spot was around 1704. I had to pay 51 for the option. The spot ended the day at 1715.25, up by 11 points, and the Option decayed by 1 point. This was clearly the outcome of a falling VIX and the impact was more than severe in my view.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
4-10-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
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