India Inc Quarterly Earnings and Nifty Corelation
We all know that our beloved 
NIFTY has shy of 1500 points in short time, falling from a cliff. Naturally people are eager to guess if the holy grail Bottom is there, or it will test the 4th of June Election Result Day low at least.
Being a price action student, it's always good to look at the history and try to take a leaf out from it. Specifically, when I can recall what happened one year back in October 2023 where there were substantial FII selloffs before Q2 results (of FY 23-24). Of course there is a slight difference in the situation. Last year the moonsoon was not that good, this year above normal.
So I took all the last 4 quarterly result and see what happened around these times in Daily timeframe.
As it's evident:
The things become even more interesting if we check the RSI beyond this point (last 6 months). Here are the obervations:
My Expectation:
So essentially end of this week onwards expecting a 800/1000 points recovery, IMO.
Seems too optimistic? May be .. lets see.
Just sharing my personal views. End the day: Market is Supreme and Price Action is the King.
NIFTY has shy of 1500 points in short time, falling from a cliff. Naturally people are eager to guess if the holy grail Bottom is there, or it will test the 4th of June Election Result Day low at least. Being a price action student, it's always good to look at the history and try to take a leaf out from it. Specifically, when I can recall what happened one year back in October 2023 where there were substantial FII selloffs before Q2 results (of FY 23-24). Of course there is a slight difference in the situation. Last year the moonsoon was not that good, this year above normal.
So I took all the last 4 quarterly result and see what happened around these times in Daily timeframe.
As it's evident:
- In 26/10/23 (Q2 results midway) there were a dip to 18850 level when RSI was at oversold region.
- Within next two months, the Nifty gave ~15% return.
- Again during 24th Jan'24 (Q3 results midway) there is a dip and then Nifty quickly recovered.
- Again during 19/04/24 (Q4/annual results midway), there is a dip and then again smart recovery.
The things become even more interesting if we check the RSI beyond this point (last 6 months). Here are the obervations:
- 19th April'24, 9th May'24, 4th June'24, 5th Aug'24 - the RSI was at 40 level.
- Price were more or less around same/similar level. (Except Aug when Nifty was at 24000).
- Now the Nifty RSI was at 36. But the price is at 24800.
- It's indices Hidden Bullish Divergence
My Expectation:
- There can be a little more dip (lets say another 150-250 points, at max 24550).
- Then Nifty starts recovering smartly and will try to reclaim the 25500 Resistance level.
- We shall see what will happen next.
So essentially end of this week onwards expecting a 800/1000 points recovery, IMO.
Seems too optimistic? May be .. lets see.
Just sharing my personal views. End the day: Market is Supreme and Price Action is the King.
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