INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE

١١ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

*GLOBAL UPDATE
-wall street had a great week
-we have a bullish engulfing pattern on weekly chart
-a clear ascending triangle pattern can be seen in weekly and daily chart
-although the current move can be seen as a short-squeeze
-the rally in usa market was lead by weakened dollar and fall in crude oil prices
-we had discussed it last time that we have negative divergence on dollar index chart

-on the crude oil front we have something called as "death cross"
-it happens when 50-day moving average goes below the 200-day moving average
-all signs of positive for emerging markets
-falling dollar=positive for fii flows in the indian markets
-falling crude oil prices improves fiscal deficit numbers
-aides many sectors also

WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR THIS WEEK
-tuesday we have the cpi numbers in america
-core cpi is expected to shrink to 8.1%(forecast)
-it was 8.5%(previous)
-a number below 8% will be considered significant for american markets
-a rally of another 1000 point and eventually a breakout can be triggered
-a number above 8.5 will be considered extremely negative
-it can lead to retest of recent lows


INDIAN MARKETS AND NIFTY/BANKNIFTY UPDATES
-if you recall previously i have mentioned this many a times
-Indian markets will decouple from the global markets
-you know have the proof of that
-we are outperforming the global markets on relative strength
-recent figures of direct tax collections were up 30%(yoy)
-banks credit growth upto 15% (9 year high)
-banks are headed for re-rating in indian markets

NIFTY INDEX SENTIMENT AND TECHNICAL UPDATE
-index has finally closed above 17830 as i wanted
-lets understand the view now from elliot wave perspective
*wave:1 from 15200-18000(impulse wave)
*wave:2 from 18000-17150(corrective wave)/(shallow correction less than 38.2%)
*wave:3 from 17150-19150(read below)

PATTERN IS DEVELOPING
*what we know is the principle and law of wave theory
*wave 3 cannot be smaller or lesser than wave 1 and wave 5
*wave 1,3,5 are all impulse wave (TRENDING WAVES)
*length of wave 1=2800
*wave 3 cannot be < wave 1
*so wave 1 projection can lead to 2800 points atleast from 17150

TECHNICAL UPDATE
-index has broken above major resistance zone of 17830
-we had a inverted head and shoulders breakout in nifty index hourly chart
-on friday we saw some buying in the NIFTY IT SECTOR
-this week i believe NIFTY IT/NIFTY BANKING SECTOR will carry the mental of breaking 18000
-banknifty has broken above 40000 and will make attempt at new all-time high sooner or later
-it just a matter of time for nifty index to follow
-tuesday cpi numbers can provide additional boost to the market
-remember a close above 18100 will open up a move towards new all time sooner
-septerber has recently seen a move of 8% average in recent year on either side
-if we follow the suit the attempt at new all-time high is near

CRUCIAL RESISTANCE
18050-18120
CRUCIAL SUPPORT@
17740-17630

FORECAST
-i have been long and advised long since 15700-16400 levels
-i have always expected new all time high by diwali
-it should come till then

BANKNIFTY INDEX UPDATE
-fall in the dollar index
-fall in dollar/inr pair have all lead to support in banknifty
-fii activity is back
-they are buying stocks in cash
-hot picks for them are icici bank and sbin (which we are already long in)

technical update
-index finally broke above 40k and started trending
-banknifty is all set to go to new all time highs
-in intraday time frame we have bullish flag pattern
-awaiting its breakout

-fii long exposure sits at 20%
-and we have still rallied
-imagine if this long exposure rises to 40%-45%
-we will make a new all-time high in banknifty
-we have a acheived the highest weekly close in banknifty
-banknifty is needed to break above 18k in nifty


CRUCIAL RESISTANCE ZONE
41200-41350
CRUCIAL SUPPORT
40000-39750

FORECAST
-we are holding positional longs in banknifty
-our target remains 41500-43000 till diwali
-ruppee is expected to strength
-inflows expected in icici bank and sbin
-axis bank has broken a major weekly trendline (on watchlist)

DISCLAIMER
*my views are not trade recommendation
*please consult your financial advisor
*do not over trade
*manage risk and manage risk appetite
*for live market update click on the link in signature box
*it my personal channel for live F&O TRADES

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BANKNIFTY FIRST POSITIONAL TARGET DONE
41500 IS HERE