NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week saw a continuation of the bullish momentum which too the Index to the target and major resistance of 18267. However, the Friday’s sharp fall erasing all the gains made through the week is first sign of fracture. Next couple of sessions are crucial to see if the Bulls take the control back or allow the market drift lower.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

1. The index moved in a range of 225 points viz. between 18040 and 18267
   The oscillators of different time frames are showing mixed signals
   The Index has clearly stayed above the long term trend line
   Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
   Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
   Index is moving in an Upward sloping channel with top around 18400 and support at 17820 with a Pivot at 18140
   Index may find supports at 18030, 17920, 17860, 17770, and the index could face resistances at multiple levels viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), 18350(Jan 22 High)
   Expected to remain in the range of 17820-18400 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
   

Additional interesting observations


*As observed in the previous blog index attempted the monthly peak levels of the past viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High),
The Index is entering positive territory and may remain biddish till we see a monthly close below 17700
The Index broke the downward sloping channel starting Nov 22 which was having a height of around 850 points. The target from the Break-out levels suggest that this rally has potential till 18450-500 with hurdles on every 100 points starting 18180
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are for quick reference as these are risk zones for sharp moves)
17126-17221(far away for now)
16650-16770 (far away for now)
16360-16560 (far away for now)

Final Note


*The Index has stayed well above the long term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17700
The weekly chart shows a steep upward channel with top at 18400 range and base at 17820
Though a new trend seems to be emerging towards attempt of earlier peaks or even towards posting an ATH. However, last week move suggests that there are hurdles around 18300 region
We are entering in to another crucial week and crucial range. The zone between 17700-18300 has seen sharp moves on either side
A word of caution
The target for the current move is close to 18500 and if momentum favors has potential for ATH. However, though a confirmation is required, the weekly candle is bearish
Till we see a daily close above 18250 the spikes are expected to be sold-off
A daily close below 18K would see the Index drift towards 17840 and possibly 17600

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.