27 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + Weekly + Monthly Analysis
Nifty Monthly Analysis
Nifty is up 707pts ~ 3.73% this July Expiry month. The breakout from the last known resistance of 18880 came on the last working day of the previous month. All Nifty had to do was sustain that momentum and see where it has taken it? Almost for 11 days Nifty revised its all time highs. The last 5 days has been pretty unlucky for the bulls.
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Probably this was the only week in this month that belonged to the bears, we dropped 268pts ~ 1.34% between the last expiry and today. And this is the first week in this current month where nifty did not hit a new all time high. Although I had taken the short position from last friday, it was negated in the trade yesterday. And I am back to square one today as Nifty shows bearishness.
Nifty Daily Analysis
Nifty fell an impressive 264pts ~ 1.33% today and did 2 important things today.
Broke the island gap formation of yesterday, immediately negating the bullish stance
Broke the swing low of day before yesterday confirming continuation in bearish stance.
In yesterday’s analysis we did discuss the possibility of a fake move if Nifty retouches the 19600 levels. I wanted that to happen in the forenoon, but it happened only by 15.00. And the last 30mts nifty gained back 100 points to close in decent territory.
The 2 abrupt moves took out my stop losses in either direction, so this week it was all learning and no earning 🙂
Yesterday’s island formation encircled, to enter the prior session’s bearish stance - nifty will have to fall below 19540 tomorrow. This may seem quite too much as US markets SPX, DJI and NDQ are currently celebrating better than expected GDP data. Regarding the options premium behaviour - I will discuss in the banknifty analysis below.
...
Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
Nifty is up 707pts ~ 3.73% this July Expiry month. The breakout from the last known resistance of 18880 came on the last working day of the previous month. All Nifty had to do was sustain that momentum and see where it has taken it? Almost for 11 days Nifty revised its all time highs. The last 5 days has been pretty unlucky for the bulls.
Nifty Weekly Analysis
Probably this was the only week in this month that belonged to the bears, we dropped 268pts ~ 1.34% between the last expiry and today. And this is the first week in this current month where nifty did not hit a new all time high. Although I had taken the short position from last friday, it was negated in the trade yesterday. And I am back to square one today as Nifty shows bearishness.
Nifty Daily Analysis
Nifty fell an impressive 264pts ~ 1.33% today and did 2 important things today.
Broke the island gap formation of yesterday, immediately negating the bullish stance
Broke the swing low of day before yesterday confirming continuation in bearish stance.
In yesterday’s analysis we did discuss the possibility of a fake move if Nifty retouches the 19600 levels. I wanted that to happen in the forenoon, but it happened only by 15.00. And the last 30mts nifty gained back 100 points to close in decent territory.
The 2 abrupt moves took out my stop losses in either direction, so this week it was all learning and no earning 🙂
Yesterday’s island formation encircled, to enter the prior session’s bearish stance - nifty will have to fall below 19540 tomorrow. This may seem quite too much as US markets SPX, DJI and NDQ are currently celebrating better than expected GDP data. Regarding the options premium behaviour - I will discuss in the banknifty analysis below.
...
Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
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