18MAR2021_EXPIRY_OUTLOOK

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Global factors to look at:
• Gold is entering bear market with a correction of 20% from ATH.
• Brent Crude is trading near the 52 weeks high of 70.45 mark.
• DollarIndex is near 92 mark. Cooled off a bit in the last 2 days
• US 10 Yr bond yield > 1.5. Have cooled off a bit in last 2 session
• US markets recovered in last 4 sessions. Dow/DAX hits new ATH
• Nasdaq has entered correction phase & down by more than 10%
• All global ETF's down by 10% except "iShares Trust India ETF"

Technical Outlook:
• BankNifty is trading within the range of 34865-36610 (Box).
• RSIStairs > 55 looks bullish in both Nifty/BankNifty (75M/1D)
• ADX has dropped below 15 in both Indian benchmark indices
• BankNifty & Nifty combined open interest is alarmingly high
• Looking at the COI data move can be big causing a stampede.
• IndiaVIX collapsed by 21% from 26.41 to 20.75 in 3 sessions
• Above data points indicate the market is waiting for a range BO.

Additional data points:
• High volatility in the Indexes. Could be the distribution phase.
• FII’s have sold stock futures all the 5 days in the last week.
• 23K crore of option bought by FII last week which is very high.
• Future net long positions have dropped since 26th February
• Short selling restriction imposed by SEBI is still in force.

Volume profile & trade plan:
As per volume profile value area is placed within 15249(VAH) 14944(VAL) for Nifty. Major trading activities are seen within this range with high volume and rising combined open interest. Nifty has made a bullish CupAndHolder pattern in smaller to the medium timeframe where breakout neckline placed at 15318. So an ideal CnH breakout level on the upside would be 15320 with a copybook target of 15950-16000. And on the downside, the critical level to watch out for is 14944/14851.

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And in BankNifty value area is placed within the range of 35912(VAH) - 35129(VAL). Nearest breakout levels are 36199 on upside 34865 on downside. Breakout beyond this range may give direction to the market. Range breakout is expected to be stronger and bigger beyond this range. Data points and charts are highly contradictory and misleading. Probably we may see another extension to the rally before the much awaited correction. Stay hedged, stay protected.

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Disclaimer: All these stock ideas or trade updates shared here are for educational purpose only and completely non-advisory in nature. I am not a SEBI registered analyst and strongly recommend people not to trade in NSE / BSE / MCX market basis this ideas. Objective of posts is to educate and help members learn technical analysis and hedging techniques from my personal trade picks to reduce the risk per trade and save yourself from bigger losses.

All these trade picks are selected using technical analysis and price action (VSA MomentumInvest Trading Setup) and for my own trading purpose only. Technical indicators are lagging and may generate false buy/sell signals. Market is supreme and my views may go horribly wrong. Please don't consider these trade ideas as trading recommendations. You may consider it for learning or at max use it for paper trading. Strictly avoid it for trading using real money. I am not responsible for any kind of profit and losses arising out of the above calls. Stock market trading and investment is subject to market risks. Contact your financial advisor before taking trades (or trade at your own risk).

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