NASDAQ bloodbath, what next?
تم تحديثه
Not going to get into the details of surging bond yields that are causing havoc across markets, just gonna display what I see on the charts and potential scenarios that could play out; both bull & bear.
Let's start with bear since it's more prominent;
- NDX closed below 50 day SMA/EMA moving averages and a crucial uptrend TL that connects March & October lows.
- NDX has been struggling with 4hr moving average dynamic resistances, losing each of its battles at every bounce.
- NQ broke-out twice out of the downtrend over the last week yet barely lasted hours before getting hammered back. Struggled to overcome 1hr downtrend TL's on my chart and when it did, it quickly lost the battle afterwards and is currently hanging on to a thread.
- Volume profile is witnessing major spikes & sell pressure in Asia/ Europe and NY sessions. NY has been picking up the mess from Asia & Europe over the past few days but gave up the bounce-me-back battle today.
- FAANG closed below a critical TL & other major tech players like Tesla, NVIDIA & PayPal are getting hammered in the process. Tesla & NVIDIA alone have lost nearly 14% & 12% of their market value respectively over the past 5 days alone.
-Candlesticks are as ugly as ugly can get.
With the above said, it does seem like another move down to break the 12740-12800 support range is extremely likely. 1-day 100-EMA or the 1 week 20-day EMA should be the next dynamic supports for NDX as they have been supporting this market during every major pullback in the past several months. The levels to watch out for are 12575-12630. If we break below these levels, 12000-12200 could be the next stops.
The bull case, though there isn't much;
- The lows are 'still holding' and the market parked the bus above right above these levels.
- Volume spikes at the 12760 level have been substantial, however continuation is weak and bears have shown strength above. Whether this level has been exhausted or not, we'll only know during futures trading and NY session tomorrow.
- Diverging 1hr RSI on NDX and 4hr RSI on NQ potentially forming an IHS. If it plays out, we might see a trend reversal sooner than later either from recent lows or the moving averages I mentioned above.
- Stimulus? I don't even know how it will affect markets as it's been expected and priced in for quite a while now but the market never fails to surprise.
- Can't reiterate how strong the fundamentals are for big tech minus Tesla; at some point the bleeding will stop and a strong rebound will be at play. I still strongly believe we are heading to 14000.
Let's start with bear since it's more prominent;
- NDX closed below 50 day SMA/EMA moving averages and a crucial uptrend TL that connects March & October lows.
- NDX has been struggling with 4hr moving average dynamic resistances, losing each of its battles at every bounce.
- NQ broke-out twice out of the downtrend over the last week yet barely lasted hours before getting hammered back. Struggled to overcome 1hr downtrend TL's on my chart and when it did, it quickly lost the battle afterwards and is currently hanging on to a thread.
- Volume profile is witnessing major spikes & sell pressure in Asia/ Europe and NY sessions. NY has been picking up the mess from Asia & Europe over the past few days but gave up the bounce-me-back battle today.
- FAANG closed below a critical TL & other major tech players like Tesla, NVIDIA & PayPal are getting hammered in the process. Tesla & NVIDIA alone have lost nearly 14% & 12% of their market value respectively over the past 5 days alone.
-Candlesticks are as ugly as ugly can get.
With the above said, it does seem like another move down to break the 12740-12800 support range is extremely likely. 1-day 100-EMA or the 1 week 20-day EMA should be the next dynamic supports for NDX as they have been supporting this market during every major pullback in the past several months. The levels to watch out for are 12575-12630. If we break below these levels, 12000-12200 could be the next stops.
The bull case, though there isn't much;
- The lows are 'still holding' and the market parked the bus above right above these levels.
- Volume spikes at the 12760 level have been substantial, however continuation is weak and bears have shown strength above. Whether this level has been exhausted or not, we'll only know during futures trading and NY session tomorrow.
- Diverging 1hr RSI on NDX and 4hr RSI on NQ potentially forming an IHS. If it plays out, we might see a trend reversal sooner than later either from recent lows or the moving averages I mentioned above.
- Stimulus? I don't even know how it will affect markets as it's been expected and priced in for quite a while now but the market never fails to surprise.
- Can't reiterate how strong the fundamentals are for big tech minus Tesla; at some point the bleeding will stop and a strong rebound will be at play. I still strongly believe we are heading to 14000.
تم فتح الصفقة
Bought 12672 while it was hovering right over 100 day EMA as I am betting on 4hr RSI divergence & IHS formation both in RSI and candlestick patterns. Let's see how it plays out.
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