Covid & Vaccine Related Novavax Long Play in the cards

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Hi guys! So lately theres been some buzz on a particular variant, increased cases of hospitalizations and government backing. At risk population that require vaccinations/ boosters will always exist. Therefore, i believe this fact along with various technical analysis findings can make companies such as Biontech, Moderna and even not as famous Novavax potential plays.

(Look below for my analysis on Biontech)

Jumping right in. This is a technical analysis on Novavax (NVAX) on the 3 day timeframe.

Zoomed in we can see that we have a GOLDEN CROSS.

Between the:
21 EMA
50 SMA

Being on the 3 Day its ALOT more Powerful than having it on 1 Day and it may influence the larger timeframes. Which is what we want.

We have also maintained SUPPORT on both Moving Average. (21 EMA and 50 SMA)

This is a great sign, if we continue like how we are with our current candle during the close that would further confirm Support and a bullish case in my opinion.

This 3 day candle will close on the 8th of September. Pay attention to how big the body of candle gets on the close.

With this i would like Volume to start to pick up especially if and when we get to the "flat trendline".

Another important development to notice is the Ascending Triangle.

This can be giving us evidence we are in the process of BOTTOMING out.

Watch for the breakout ABOVE the Flatline. This with confirmation of Support on flatline would be a Major Area to take Long Positions.

I would ADVISE AGAINST buying inside the triangle. But Belowthe Ascending Support Line would be an area for Stop losses.

Watch also how the MACD acts. If we continue in Green and the Blue/Orange lines make it ABOVE 0 level. We will be off to the races, as it would be the necessary catalyst that provides momentum to have the triangle play out.

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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.

Stay tuned for more updates on NVAX in the near future.

If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.

DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.

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ملاحظة

These are all the examples in the History of Novavax of when both:

Golden cross of 21 EMA & 50 SMA
MACD Above 0 level

Is this time any different? Could be.... BUT the probabilities favor a solid LONG play. In my Opinion.

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ملاحظة

We have broken above the Triangle Pattern's Flat trendline on the 1 Day timeframe.

Is it off to the races? NO.

Still risk for a FAKEOUT

We must wait for confirmation which is testing and confirming SUPPORT on the Blue Flat line.

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ملاحظة

Look at the previous times we broke ABOVE the blue line, thats a fakeout.

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ملاحظة

We are testing SUPPORT on 21 EMA and on our short term Support line on the 1 Week timeframe.

Watch how it plays out at the close of this weeks candle. We must stay ABOVE.

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ملاحظة

Wanted to do a little UPDATE after this random downside move after the "news" drop.

"The vaccine maker said doses of its updated Covid 19 vaccine have arrived in US and are pending FDA/ CDC evaluation.

This is NORMAL protocol for things with clinical application to go through....

There vaccine was approved before during the COVID-19 pandemic, im still in the camp things resume to upside. Unless they somehow wanted to make risky vaccines and risk business......... Which it possible but less likely.

BUT lets forget the news, lets see this in a TA perspective.

NOTE that: We are in the direction we are in, until PROVEN OTHERWISE.



TOday's candle close is definitely alarming. Massive Engulfing BEAR candle.

But with VOLUME picking up, it just means volitility picking up as well. It can be followed by a bullish candle, we don't know so we need to be patient and not panic.

AND we are still ABOVE the Sloping Support trendline. Until this is broken, we are in an Ascending Triangle pattern in my opinion.

Watch for a TEST on this line now.

REMEMBER to play this triangle, you need to wait for confirmation of breakout. Following that rule, i hope people have not taken positions or if they did hopefully only small positions. Its risky to take positions inside of a chart pattern, because you never know the opposite can play out where we break to the downside. For trading success, let tradescome to you. Set strong principle based strategies. Don't chase or FOMO.

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ملاحظة

WE have reached the SUPPORT trendline of the Ascending Triangle.

Watch how we interact here. For continuing to form the triangle, we need to bounce from here.

Look for Confirmation of Support.

There is also risk of breaking down below. If we do, look for the dashed lines to play support.

Is it a bad thing? No not necessarily. If we reach BELOW the bottom dashed line, then yes. But if we bounce from there, it could indicate we are in a consolidation zone.

So lets take it 1 step at a time. Remember, the highest probability play is to trade the breakout of the Triangle as of now.

Stay tuned for more updates!

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ملاحظة

Well lookly here. We had beautiful reaction off the Ascending Support Line.

Does anyone know the name of this candle? Put it in the comments below if you do!

Its even got a Lower Wick. This is a great sign, showing tremendous BUY Demand here. Making me think more and more that 12% drop from the news drop was manipulation, market makers wanting better positions Maybe......

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ملاحظة

This is a look on the 1 Week timeframe.

We can see that last weeks candle was a Bearishing Engulfing candle.

This weeks candle which closes today also relatively bearish. But it does shows a decrease in size of the body of the candle, showing waning sell pressure.

Note however, we are BELOW the Ascending Triangle Support line.
Reaching our 1st Support level Below the Triangle Support line.

We have bounced off the Support line with a Lower WICK. This shows signs of Strong buying Pressure.

We have also Not Yet CONFIRMED Below the Triangle SUpport line. We must look to next week's or next couple weeks of candle prints to assess further.

But ideally, we need to see Price get back inside the Triangle Pattern.

Notice also VOLUME. Its starting to pick up. With the break of the triangle, it might be telling us we could have further downside, especially if we continue to increase in VOlume.

If we can get couple prints of Low Volume, it may indicate us stalling here and getting back inside Triangle Pattern.

If we do end of getting to " Our Last Line of Defence", this may indicate a Double bottom.

Reminder: Be cautious here taking positions. I'd personally advise against. It kinda seems like we are still trying to BOTTOM OUT.

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ملاحظة

Update on the 1 Day.

We have made it backon the Sloping Support trendline of my Ascending Triangle outline.

We have also made it back ABOVE the 21 EMA (Purple Moving Average).

However its only been 1 candle, we still need to wait for next couple candle prints to confirm Support. Watch for that.

MACD has crossed BULLISH with Green histobar print. Watch for cross to move ABOVE 0 level. This would bring in strong bullish momentum.

Crazy how this move aligns with News drop of NVAX being approved......There was no way it wasn't going to be approved. I will be watching NVAX like a hawk now. Felt like manipulation in my opinion.

Target is still playing the Triangle Breakout/ Golden cross on the 3D timeframe. Ill be updating this with more developments.