NVDA: Week of April 15

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And finally, NVDA.

Setup is beraish on the 4 hour, with the immediate point being the yellow line in the chart. We usually overshoot these Heikin ashi setup targets so look to the calculate low targets starting at 849.

I was thinking we would fall back down into the gap support and then break below it (the purple box), however, owning to that over-zealous squeeze on Thursday, the gap is well below the calculate targets and lately NVDA doesn't really go lower than the third calculated low. So I have doubts we will see a move back to the gap range absent any major catalyst next week, but it is a real possibility so just keep an eye on that area if we do indeed sell.

NVDA already fell below the bearish condition in post-market on Friday. So unless we see some crazy gap ups, we should open below it.

I was going to run time series forecast on NVDA to help identify the longer picture but haven't had a chance. And was also going to check insider activity but the same applies, haven't had the opportunity yet. As I have indicated in other previous ideas, the setup on the week is extremely damning putting our min target sub 700. Whether or not it saves this for a larger market correction or does it over the course of weeks to months, I am not sure.

NVDA is a bit of a market follower, so if the market finishes its pullback before NVDA snags its sub 700s then I would haphazard a guess that it will get pulled back up. I just take NVDA day by day, week by week and I think its probably the best move for right now.

Safe trades everyone!

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ملاحظة

NVDA bouncing off the HA target in after hours.
I kind of expect us to just gap down into the low range tomorrow.

Otherwise, for NVDA tomorrow, probability is indicating a bit more of a rangey day with a tad of a bullish bias. Probably not the best ticker to play if you are a day trader.

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ملاحظة

So yeah, we snagged the low target on a bit of a sell down premarket. We got halted at the threshold at close.
Showing a tad on the bullish side again tomorrow. Ideally we gap over the threshold and open above or within to confirm support holding, then its just up from there.
If we open below then just look for a rejection and its a short.
Else if we break and hold its a long.
I suspect we will open above or in the threshold and it will hold as support but that's just me guessing.

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ملاحظة

Likely straight up to 891 today (that major HA resistance line).


From there we will see what it does. If the market is going to be rangy again today then we should see rejection and similar PA to yesterday.

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ملاحظة

Yikes, we opened where I wanted it to open but didn't retest the resistance like I would like to.
Was waiting for that resistance re-test to short but uh, yeah it beat me to the punch.
Still shorted it just not the entry I had hoped for.

Looking at tomorrow, not really sure what happens. The whole market moved so erratically, the computer model is a bit confused.
However, we are at the last projected low target. As I said earlier in the idea, I was expecting this week for us to sell down to the gap zone, its just NVDA doesn't usually break and hold below its calculated low range.

That said, we saw a lot of bearish momentum pop in yesterday.

There is some Heikin Ashi signs of a continuation down, but that could just be a gap down and bounce.

Play it safe and be cautious. The projected levels for tomorrow are below:

tradingview.com/x/PKeIPFmq/'

If we open in the high target range, then its short (imo).

Let's see what happens!

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ملاحظة

So we ended up getting my desired target range which was a move to the purple box (see main idea above). I wanted to see it break below and hold but we quickly got bought back up.
Generally this would be a bullish sign, except for the fact that it was already asking for too much for NVDA to hit this purple box (because it was outside of the range), asking for it to extend even further past its range and act decisively is just asking too much.

Tomorrow expect continued rangey behavour with a bearish bias.
We likely won't see decisiveness until Monday on NVDA. Though Friday's always like to throw curve balls so many we see it!

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Well we saw decisiveness.
We are fufilling the prohpecy. NVDA is OVAH!