NYA (XLV, XLF,XLE, DJT,IWM)
It's been a while since I've covered Cyclicals.. since we are heading into earnings next week let's kick it off.
Monthly chart here on NYA looks like we've topped a 15yr wedge after the Trump election Squeeze..
Weekly chart is showing price is holding secondary trendline (Yellow). But it's stuck beneath weekly 20sma ...
q
Daily chart
As you can see we are trading between a rock and a hard place..
Holding trend but stuck under weekly 20sma.. either we break back above and push near Nov highs or the price breaks support and we start a major correction to monthly wedge support
Even if we correct back to monthly support I think it will be 1 more leg up here which would be an amazing spot to buy. To put that in perspective imagine rewinding time and buying at 2022 lows
XLF (Banks)
Similar to NYA top multi decade trendline.. If you gifted me Bank shares id sell them 😂.. when I look at this chart I understand Why Warren buffet sold his stake in BAC
Weekly chart
Sitting on trendline (Yellow) support with major resistance overhead... I don't think this gets back over 50.00 and I think a very rough Q1 and Q2 will be in-store for financials
Daily chart
You can see price here at trendline support.. you see that gap down there at 46.60? That was the Trump election gap ; that gap is my TGT for this earning cycle.. now if they pull the fawker route then they could pop this back up to 50.00 before the sell but if fade any pop on banks..
My correction TGT on the bank sector is 44-45..
XLV (Health)
Monthly chart Approaching 15 year trend support and Monthly 50sma.. stock has never closed below monthly 50 since 2009..
Weekly chart.
Similar analysis as monthly but insert 200sma instead. Riding lower BBAnds which usually leads to a rally back to upper bands also Stochastic oversold
Daily chart
I think we get a rally back to 148 or 200sma this earnings season..
Price action at 136 should hold and support this move.
I'd be very careful long at 148.. Price could form a right shoulder...
This incoming administration appointed RFK over health department and he's anti vaccination, Anti medication 😂.. RFK is part of the reason this sector corrected so hard so id be weary about leaps on any health stocks.. Don't get value trapped .
Energy Sector
XLE
Monthly chart..
In the last 20yrs we are at the top of a range
Technicals say the risk to reward trading energy isnt here at these levels
Weekly chart . Riding lower band and trendline so I expect a bounce back up 91.50 minimum here.
Daily chart..
You see the gap at 90.50?
Also 200sma right about at 91.00
Now take into account of the historical resistance at of 91.00 .. I think price has a very hard time at 91 and I'd bail on any longs near there
I'll do IWM and Dow Jones Trans later
Monthly chart here on NYA looks like we've topped a 15yr wedge after the Trump election Squeeze..
Weekly chart is showing price is holding secondary trendline (Yellow). But it's stuck beneath weekly 20sma ...
q
Daily chart
As you can see we are trading between a rock and a hard place..
Holding trend but stuck under weekly 20sma.. either we break back above and push near Nov highs or the price breaks support and we start a major correction to monthly wedge support
Even if we correct back to monthly support I think it will be 1 more leg up here which would be an amazing spot to buy. To put that in perspective imagine rewinding time and buying at 2022 lows
XLF (Banks)
Similar to NYA top multi decade trendline.. If you gifted me Bank shares id sell them 😂.. when I look at this chart I understand Why Warren buffet sold his stake in BAC
Weekly chart
Sitting on trendline (Yellow) support with major resistance overhead... I don't think this gets back over 50.00 and I think a very rough Q1 and Q2 will be in-store for financials
Daily chart
You can see price here at trendline support.. you see that gap down there at 46.60? That was the Trump election gap ; that gap is my TGT for this earning cycle.. now if they pull the fawker route then they could pop this back up to 50.00 before the sell but if fade any pop on banks..
My correction TGT on the bank sector is 44-45..
XLV (Health)
Monthly chart Approaching 15 year trend support and Monthly 50sma.. stock has never closed below monthly 50 since 2009..
Weekly chart.
Similar analysis as monthly but insert 200sma instead. Riding lower BBAnds which usually leads to a rally back to upper bands also Stochastic oversold
Daily chart
I think we get a rally back to 148 or 200sma this earnings season..
Price action at 136 should hold and support this move.
I'd be very careful long at 148.. Price could form a right shoulder...
This incoming administration appointed RFK over health department and he's anti vaccination, Anti medication 😂.. RFK is part of the reason this sector corrected so hard so id be weary about leaps on any health stocks.. Don't get value trapped .
Energy Sector
XLE
Monthly chart..
In the last 20yrs we are at the top of a range
Technicals say the risk to reward trading energy isnt here at these levels
Weekly chart . Riding lower band and trendline so I expect a bounce back up 91.50 minimum here.
Daily chart..
You see the gap at 90.50?
Also 200sma right about at 91.00
Now take into account of the historical resistance at of 91.00 .. I think price has a very hard time at 91 and I'd bail on any longs near there
I'll do IWM and Dow Jones Trans later
ملاحظة
IWM
Small caps monthly chart
I circled the 2 times small caps broke out of this range..
1st break down came from covid crash in 2020
2nd break came from stimulus injection and record IPO late 2020.
Now we are back at the top of that range and price got rejected In late Nov 2024.
December monthly candle closed as a dark cloud cover.. Doesn't get anymore Bearish than this
Weekly chart
I'll give you a few angles and perspective why I think small caps topped back in 2024 ..
Broke to the down side of it's secondary channel (Yellow)
Closed below weekly 20sma at 225
Using Fib levels from 2022 low and 244 ATH
You get strong price resistance at 225 .
When it comes to Fib resistance .236 is the toughest
Let's say by some bullish miracle iWM breaks back above 226 , I think price will go no higher than 232-234
I think the end of month target on IWM is 209..
Daily chart
209 would represent a retest of this breakout
Below 209 is death and based on the Monthly candle of December id say we are headed for a retest of the primary trendline from the monthly chart
Dow Jones Transportation
Monthly chart
By now if you notice all these indexes I'm showing you on the monthly chart Topped out Nov 2024..
And have been underperforming the last 5weeks..
Well just like The others I think DJT is in for a rough half 2025..
Weekly chart , at first glance price looks like a mess
But when you throw some lines on it some things stand out..
Most noticable is the close back under 16700 resistance
Next up is how price is riding the weekly 200sma which it has only broken twice in the last 16yrs.. that's what you call a rock in a hard place.. if you are a Investor or trader in Cruise, transportation, shipping companies this isn't a time to buy.. id wait for 14,500..
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