NZD/JPY Long Term Idea

I happened to stumble upon this pair, thought I had it marked up already.. Regardless, we can see that price retested previous levels around the 82.000 handle and is now heading lower. There are 2 possible scenarios. First being price makes a short retrace to hit the level indicated by the blue line and then falls lower to the fib extensions. The second play is price ranges slightly in the current area and simply falls without any retracement.. I will be overlooking this pair in the long term. I make sure to not "solidify" myself to any bias as the market can present whatever it wants.