NZD/USD Long Trade Setup (Next Week)

📌 Market Overview & Analysis

• The NZD/USD pair has recently tested a key support level around 0.5550 and showed signs of bullish rejection, suggesting a potential reversal.

• Price is currently trading around 0.5740-0.5750, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent downtrend.

• A break above this level could confirm a move towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (~0.5880) as the first target (TP1).

• If momentum continues and market conditions support further upside, we will hold for TP2, which will depend on price action and momentum near the 0.618 Fibonacci level (~0.6056).

📊 Trade Plan



📍 Entry:

• Long Position: Enter between 0.5730–0.5750, confirming bullish momentum with a break and close above 0.5747 (0.236 Fib level) on the 4H or daily timeframe.



🎯 Target Prices (Take Profit - TP):

• TP1: 0.5880 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement level)

• TP2: 0.6056 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, conditional on momentum)



📉 Stop-Loss (SL):

• Below recent low at 0.5600, keeping a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.



📈 Trade Management & Exit Strategy:

1. If price reaches TP1 (0.5880):

• Secure partial profits.

• Move stop-loss to breakeven for remaining position.

2. If bullish momentum continues:

• Hold towards TP2 (0.6056).

• Monitor price action at resistance levels.

3. If market shows signs of rejection at 0.5880:

• Consider exiting the full position.

📌 Market Conditions to Watch:

• DXY (US Dollar Index): Weakness in the USD could further support NZD/USD upside.

• Fundamental Events: Keep an eye on RBNZ and Fed statements, employment data, and CPI reports.

• Momentum Confirmation: Ensure price is holding above 0.5747 before entering.

📝 Summary:

• Trade Direction: Long

• Entry: 0.5730–0.5750

• SL: Below 0.5600

• TP1: 0.5880 (0.382 Fib)

• TP2: 0.6056 (0.618 Fib, if momentum sustains)

• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 or better

• Key Confirmation: Bullish breakout & momentum