$RUNE is in my buying zone
تم تحديثه
RUNE has once again re-entered my buying zone, which I believe presents a buying opportunity. The team is rolling out their next update, causing a temporary slowdown. As you know,
RUNE's price is closely tied to the number and volume of transactions on the network. Since the new version hasn’t been fully deployed across all nodes yet, it’s impacting both the volume and the price. Once the update is complete,
RUNE should recover. DYOR, of course. Keep in mind that if BTC crashes, all altcoins will likely crash too, regardless of their fundamentals.
تم فتح الصفقة
Someone on Twitter explained what is happening to RUNE at the moment
x.com/ate_bites/status/1877022910948511753
Here is a copy of the post for your information
We need to be raising awareness on just how bad of a shape Thorchain lending is right now, posing a potential risk to the protocol itself.
As it stands, at current mark to market rates for RUNE, complete loan closure will mint 24 million RUNE.
1,604 in BTC collateral, 18,258 ETH in total is outstanding to be repaid by depositors. With half of this value withdrawn in USD denomination at much lower prices than where we are today.
In addition to that, RUNE price has fallen, leading to a major increase in the RUNE liability to pay the protocol.
Right now, in pools, there is only 592 BTC in the Bitcoin pool, and 7404 ETH in the Ethereum pool on Thorchain.
There is blatant ignorance in assuming that the collateral can be returned to borrowers, even if the borrowers return half the valued owed (802 BTC 9129 ETH) there is a decent risk as outlined in lending mechanics that the difference, 210 BTC and 1725 ETH is left outstanding owed to depositors.
As RUNE/BTC price continues on a down trend, more rune is required to be minted to repay the BTC obligation. This puts further pressure on RUNE price.
Furthermore, as bad actors realize this vulnerability, they will short RUNE in expectations of it falling further as more RUNE is required to be minted, magnifying the divergence between RUNE and BTC.
This price action makes it less likely that BTC is deposited for liquidity on thorchain, requiring even more RUNE to be sold to bid for BTC to pay back obligations. Instead, BTC must be bid from the open market, this is done by the rune side of the BTC/RUNE pool deepening, which raises BTC price on the protocol, level. People will be able to swap BTC for USD at a higher rate than the market and buy back more BTC with USD on the market. An arbitrage opportunity.
What is bad about this is USD pools will decline in dollar depth, furthering RUNE’s declining price. And BTC price on pool rises further, widening the RUNE/BTC gap.
So, how much USD is available to bid for BTC and ETH on the protocol?
Around $22-$23 million.
But the outstanding unmet liabilities are around $24+ million.
At these prices, the protocol is barely solvent, and that’s without everyone panic dumping their RUNE and mass shorting it.
And we’re on track for $3.30, guess if we are solvent then.
Someone ping algod his next short is here.
And no this isn’t spreading fud, you need to be aware of this risk happening now.
I will link the risk disclosure for thorchain lending below, right now we should be on heightened alert or P1 war cabinet for the following risk factors:
R1: shallow pools
R2: increased derivative risk position
R4: infinite timeline of derivatives
R5: large upswing of prices (rune denomination, usd denomination)
R6: non loan claims on reserves
R7: correlation of loan drain in reserve events with non reserve events
R13: RUNE price drops.
This qualifies as a Priority 1 emergency for any large institutions IT department and an immediate focus on addressing lending risk should be held. We have over 50% of risk vectors on heightened alert. I just hope I’m not too late for sounding the alarm.
ملاحظة
Remember "Do not catch a falling knife"
Whait for a confirmed bottom to buy.
أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف
On October 13th, 2023, I posted this: x.com/cryptonikkoid/status/1712387596905803900. At the time, RUNE had experienced a -40% pullback because the US authorities shut down ThorSwap, citing its use by criminals. Despite the FUD, operations resumed, and RUNE rallied to $12 over the following year.
Now, we’re facing another wave of FUD surrounding Thorchain. The reported bad debt stands at
25M, while the annual revenue is 75M—this shouldn't pose a significant issue in the long run.
Is the bottom in? It’s hard to say just yet. Wait for a daily MACD crossover as confirmation. There’s massive resistance at $2, but also a huge buying opportunity at that level. Patience could pay off.
ملاحظة
RUNE, stay away from this coin until they are fixing their internal problems. right now, they are going to dump really deep. Check their Twitter to follow the situation.ملاحظة
Bottom could be around $1.5
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