Silver Soars amid China’s Stimulus and Investment Demand
Silver’s dual role in both investment and industry makes it highly sensitive to economic slowdowns but also well-positioned to thrive during periods of strong growth.
Silver prices have surged 30% year-to-date, driven by a fourth consecutive year of supply deficit, soaring demand from the expanding photovoltaic (PV) industry, and spillover momentum from gold, which has also risen about 30% this year.
However, unlike gold, silver remains well below its 2011 peak of USD 50/oz. With bullish sentiment building, the question remains—could silver catch up with gold’s blistering performance?
CHINA’s STIMULUS SUPPORTS SILVER
China’s broad stimulus announcement supports a bullish view on silver. The announcement of the massive stimulus package in China drove a 4% rally in silver prices. However, since then, further announcements have failed to drive a similar rally in silver.
The scale of the stimulus package was the largest since the pandemic. The stimulus package included a 50 basis point cut in the Reserve Ratio Requirement for Chinese banks which is expected to free up about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. The stimulus package also included a 20 basis point cut to the 7-day repo rate, as well as a 30 basis point cut to the medium-term lending facility.
Over the past weekend, China announced additional broad stimulus measures, signalling a “significant increase” in debt. While the exact scale of new debt issuance remains uncertain, the scope and tone of the announcement reflect the government’s commitment to delivering sufficient monetary support to revive the struggling economy.
The stimulus package benefits silver through multiple channels. It bolsters industrial demand by driving increased activity from PV and electronics manufacturers. Additionally, improved consumer sentiment is likely to boost silver consumption in the form of jewellery and electronics.
RUSSIA TO INCLUDE SILVER IN PRECIOUS METALS STRATEGY
According to a report by InterFax, the Russian Finance Ministry is considering adding silver to its State Fund's precious metal holdings. Although the volume of potential acquisitions remains unclear, this move represents a new source of demand for silver.
PV PRODUCTION AND INSTALLATIONS REMAIN STRONG
PV production continues to thrive, boosting silver demand. Data from Ember Climate shows that global solar installations are 29% higher than last year. This growth has remained steady throughout the year, with several agencies, including the IEA and S&P Global, continuously raising their forecasts for annual installations in recent months.
The growth slowdown observed in China last April has since reversed, with solar additions rising sharply and projected to close the year 28% higher year-over-year. The easing of installation curbs in June played a key role in supporting this renewed growth.
MASSIVE ETF INFLOWS SINCE JULY
Silver ETFs have experienced significant inflows in recent months, indicating strong investor interest. Since July 1, cumulative flows into four U.S.-listed silver ETFs have reached USD 942 million. Notably, over USD 400 million flowed in following the Fed’s first rate cut in September. A lower interest rate environment encourages investment in non-yielding assets like silver and boosts industrial demand.
COMEX SILVER OPTIONS SIGNAL BULLISH SENTIMENT
COMEX Silver Options positioning suggests a strong bullish sentiment. Overall OI put/call ratio is at 0.52 suggesting nearly twice as many calls as puts. Options skew points to higher IV for calls relative to puts suggesting higher demand.
Moreover, bullish positioning has only increased since the disappointing announcement by the National Development and Reform Council (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, on 8/Oct with a large call buildup on the December expiry.
SEASONALITY POINTS TO BULLISH OCTOBER
Seasonality in silver prices since 2015 suggests a bullish outlook for October. 78% of the time, the month has returned positive returns for silver with an average increase of 1.7% and a low standard deviation of returns.
The outlook is even more bullish for December which has yielded a 4% gain on average.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The fundamental outlook for silver remains bullish with support from China’s stimulus package, central bank interest, sustained PV demand, and ETF inflows.
Silver prices have remained in an uptrend year to date due to the convergence of these factors. However, prices have struggled to cross past USD 33/oz, with this level acting as a strong resistance. Prices have retraced sharply from near this level thrice this year.
The most recent reversal came after China’s stimulus announcement.
Investors can express a bullish view on Silver using CME Micro Silver futures. Each Micro Silver futures contract provides exposure to 1000 troy ounces (1/5th the size of a full silver futures contract) and requires margin of USD 2,300 as of 14/Oct.
A hypothetical trade setup using CME Micro Silver futures expiring in December offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.67x is described below:
Entry: 31.595
Target: 33.66
Stop Loss: 30.36
Profit at Target: USD 2,065 ( (33.66 – 31.595) x 1000)
Loss at Stop: USD 1,235 ( (30.36 – 31.595) x 1000)
Reward to risk: 1.67x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Silver prices have surged 30% year-to-date, driven by a fourth consecutive year of supply deficit, soaring demand from the expanding photovoltaic (PV) industry, and spillover momentum from gold, which has also risen about 30% this year.
However, unlike gold, silver remains well below its 2011 peak of USD 50/oz. With bullish sentiment building, the question remains—could silver catch up with gold’s blistering performance?
CHINA’s STIMULUS SUPPORTS SILVER
China’s broad stimulus announcement supports a bullish view on silver. The announcement of the massive stimulus package in China drove a 4% rally in silver prices. However, since then, further announcements have failed to drive a similar rally in silver.
The scale of the stimulus package was the largest since the pandemic. The stimulus package included a 50 basis point cut in the Reserve Ratio Requirement for Chinese banks which is expected to free up about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. The stimulus package also included a 20 basis point cut to the 7-day repo rate, as well as a 30 basis point cut to the medium-term lending facility.
Over the past weekend, China announced additional broad stimulus measures, signalling a “significant increase” in debt. While the exact scale of new debt issuance remains uncertain, the scope and tone of the announcement reflect the government’s commitment to delivering sufficient monetary support to revive the struggling economy.
The stimulus package benefits silver through multiple channels. It bolsters industrial demand by driving increased activity from PV and electronics manufacturers. Additionally, improved consumer sentiment is likely to boost silver consumption in the form of jewellery and electronics.
RUSSIA TO INCLUDE SILVER IN PRECIOUS METALS STRATEGY
According to a report by InterFax, the Russian Finance Ministry is considering adding silver to its State Fund's precious metal holdings. Although the volume of potential acquisitions remains unclear, this move represents a new source of demand for silver.
PV PRODUCTION AND INSTALLATIONS REMAIN STRONG
PV production continues to thrive, boosting silver demand. Data from Ember Climate shows that global solar installations are 29% higher than last year. This growth has remained steady throughout the year, with several agencies, including the IEA and S&P Global, continuously raising their forecasts for annual installations in recent months.
Source: Ember Climate
The growth slowdown observed in China last April has since reversed, with solar additions rising sharply and projected to close the year 28% higher year-over-year. The easing of installation curbs in June played a key role in supporting this renewed growth.
Source: Ember Climate
MASSIVE ETF INFLOWS SINCE JULY
Silver ETFs have experienced significant inflows in recent months, indicating strong investor interest. Since July 1, cumulative flows into four U.S.-listed silver ETFs have reached USD 942 million. Notably, over USD 400 million flowed in following the Fed’s first rate cut in September. A lower interest rate environment encourages investment in non-yielding assets like silver and boosts industrial demand.
COMEX SILVER OPTIONS SIGNAL BULLISH SENTIMENT
Source: CME QuikStrike
COMEX Silver Options positioning suggests a strong bullish sentiment. Overall OI put/call ratio is at 0.52 suggesting nearly twice as many calls as puts. Options skew points to higher IV for calls relative to puts suggesting higher demand.
Moreover, bullish positioning has only increased since the disappointing announcement by the National Development and Reform Council (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, on 8/Oct with a large call buildup on the December expiry.
Source: CME QuikStrike
SEASONALITY POINTS TO BULLISH OCTOBER
Seasonality in silver prices since 2015 suggests a bullish outlook for October. 78% of the time, the month has returned positive returns for silver with an average increase of 1.7% and a low standard deviation of returns.
The outlook is even more bullish for December which has yielded a 4% gain on average.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The fundamental outlook for silver remains bullish with support from China’s stimulus package, central bank interest, sustained PV demand, and ETF inflows.
Silver prices have remained in an uptrend year to date due to the convergence of these factors. However, prices have struggled to cross past USD 33/oz, with this level acting as a strong resistance. Prices have retraced sharply from near this level thrice this year.
The most recent reversal came after China’s stimulus announcement.
Investors can express a bullish view on Silver using CME Micro Silver futures. Each Micro Silver futures contract provides exposure to 1000 troy ounces (1/5th the size of a full silver futures contract) and requires margin of USD 2,300 as of 14/Oct.
A hypothetical trade setup using CME Micro Silver futures expiring in December offering a reward to risk ratio of 1.67x is described below:
Entry: 31.595
Target: 33.66
Stop Loss: 30.36
Profit at Target: USD 2,065 ( (33.66 – 31.595) x 1000)
Loss at Stop: USD 1,235 ( (30.36 – 31.595) x 1000)
Reward to risk: 1.67x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme.
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
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