SMH: Rally Toward $98.00, but Ultimate Fate is $80.00
Here's a quick take on SMH:
* The monthly cycle is falling and has at least 2-3 months more downside coming into the half-cycle low
* Look for a bounce toward 97.00 to 98.00; expecting short sellers to re-emerge there; note the down sloping 50-week ema
* Volume demand levels exist near 80.00, 75.00, 68.00 and 55.00; all can provide a tradable bounce, but only the 55.00 demand area can provide
sufficient buyer 'fuel' to launch a sustained bullish trend reversal.
* The full-cycle monthly lows for SMH won't occur until late 2019 - early 2020.
* OTM credit spreads using 105/100 strikes may be one way to play this near-term action
* The monthly cycle is falling and has at least 2-3 months more downside coming into the half-cycle low
* Look for a bounce toward 97.00 to 98.00; expecting short sellers to re-emerge there; note the down sloping 50-week ema
* Volume demand levels exist near 80.00, 75.00, 68.00 and 55.00; all can provide a tradable bounce, but only the 55.00 demand area can provide
sufficient buyer 'fuel' to launch a sustained bullish trend reversal.
* The full-cycle monthly lows for SMH won't occur until late 2019 - early 2020.
* OTM credit spreads using 105/100 strikes may be one way to play this near-term action
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