Sasol - JSE - Analysis October 16 2020

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This is my first analysis I published on TradingView.
I have bought Sasol at multiple levels over the last few months. I entered at R60 and bought a bit more to the top and sold out at 155 keeping the houses money invested. As many have seen and spoken about Sasol fell from a peak in covid of R180 and Showed resistance and support at R150 , Lost Support and Momentum which I believe brought the stock back to the R130 level.
Looking at chart analysis there is a simple yet huge divergence on the RSI line also looking at the volume oscillator showing us that it is still being in the same range of buyers vs Sellers.
I honestly think the news of them selling 50% of their future cash cow was bad for the market however Sasol trades much more related to the oil price and the USD/ZAR.
Taking this all into account along with the break at 2 trendlines I initiated a large position at R104 with stop loss at R89 and Take profit target at R130 (1 Month time span | Good potential for breakout and climbing the ladder to R150 before year end again | R210 1-3 Years Target

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ملاحظة

We now have a nice solid resistance at R107 with support lying close at 10450-10590.
All else looks stabled, the USD dollar account for more at SASOL, thus when we see the rand depreciate again to the dollar and the fact that in SA use of cars are back to normal so the over supply issue I think is not an issue right now as much, we must also remember that SASOL hedged their oil through 2021 so they are at minimum break even per barrel, not something many oil companies can say. The weather lately also hitting oil rigs including lake Charles Chemical plat owned by Sasol recently shows that the supply of oil will inevitably fall in the future again, leaving Sasol creating their fuel from coal in Secunda one of the few oil manufactures that is not affected directly when it comes to their coal to oil division. Bright opportunities lying ahead, still South African's Crown Jewel.

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ملاحظة

As you would see Sasol broke the support at 104 and is down close to 10% for the day. Keep in mind that on sasols way up it also contracted from close to R100 to R70 in just a few days, right before it continued rally up after the 3rd day. I did say to use a stop loss at R89 and if you have leveraged a lot perhaps stick to it. Since I'm in deep and are prepared to keep this stock I entered another position this morning at R96 and will add again if it drops to 75. Im rather going to use this opportunity to buy a stock that had a 52 Week High of R320 and that non of the fundamentals have changed, some technicals might have but that will change again soon the current market is extremely over sensitive to any bad news and even worse with good news, that is why we see this huge volatility. Keep your eye on SOL, hope to share in the profits alongside those that wait this out and scoop up on the way down some more shares... I will see you again when Sasol is at R130 or even R180.

Simply put : Ask yourself what has changed in the last while between sasol being at R130+ and now being down to R94, I simply can't find any logical reason for the extreme current sell off, but the sellers will run out of momentum and most traders who looks up sasol or owns it will definitely see the opportunity ahead

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ملاحظة

Not to much to add... My analysis and timing for sasol to cross above R110 around 21/10/2020 1PM today seems on point. Looking at Market Depth, Trade volumes and also taking note that the same RSI Divergence/reversal happened on opening today if you look at a 1 minute or two minute chart. There is also multiple signs of the stock being heavily shorted, just view the live trades and the BIDS and ASKS on another platform that gives a bit more info and you will see that the sellers are quickly running out and new buyer who missed the 1st opportunity are climbing in. Please let me know of any more information wanted in the comments below.