spx if 08 bearmarket rally repeats

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The ghost feed is taken from the bearmarket rally march - may 08, a quick spike above MA200 and then down around 50% from that spike. We retraced approx 0.618 may 08, this time will be above this rectracement lvl but still in some kind of turning zone between 0.618 and 0.786. The tempo is quite similar, we peaked 63 days into the bearmarket rally, (08) today we are 57-58 days into the rally. I expect a bigger downward move from the red zone, would also expect it to happen within coming week or two, before end of may. At least down to the 2500 area, could go further but the probability is more acttractive there. Best guess is a high 3023-45 followed by 500 points to the downside. Amen

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ملاحظة

Best guess target reached, short 3025 in premarket.