Confident US Consumers Amid Pandemic, SP500 Records

٣٠ يونيو ٢٠٢١

Yesterday's statistics on the US consumer confidence in the form of consumer confidence index showed the best sentiment over the past year. On the one hand, everything is logical: the US economy is recovering at an unprecedented rate. On the other hand, the Indian delta strain carries an increasingly tangible threat. In some places, a full-fledged panic has already begun.

Almost half of Australia's population is isolated, Indonesia is introducing stricter controls as the more infectious strain spreads, Europe is trying to insulate itself from the "delta" as best it can by excluding Britain from unrestricted travel lists.

Although judging by the dynamics of the US stock market (all three major Wall Street indices are showing growth for the fifth (!) quarter in a row), the states have already achieved collective immunity. But this is not so.

Let's forget the markets and about the Fed. Note that today's data from ADP may give the go-ahead to the Central Bank not to pay attention to the country's economy, because everything is in order with it, but to focus on inflation, which is practically equivalent to tightening monetary policy in the foreseeable future.

In general, the current growth of the US stock market looks somehow too careless. Even purely statistically, this is an anomaly: historically, the average time interval between SP500 falls by 5% or more is 178 calendar days. And now we have a 280 (!) Day of uncorrected growth.

So, in our opinion, selling on the US stock market may well turn out to be a very profitable transaction.

Purchases of the US dollar seem to us no less promising. Good data on the labor market will be a double plus for him: the economy is growing and monetary policy will be tightened. So for those who do not risk getting involved in short positions in the US stock market, long positions in the dollar in the foreign exchange market can be recommended.