Unfinished Business/Mission Probable (oversimplified)
(originally posted on ES)
Without taking into account much needed pullbacks along the way, the index has gone all Ethan Hunt on a Mission to finish the channel it began building back in November 2019, before a Global Pandemic threatened to destroy it forever.
I know, I hear you Shorties. "It's currently wearing out its welcome in a 'bearish' rising wedge pattern, and a downward break is gonna tank it to 2500 or so, fool!"
I would agree -- IF we were in a Bear Market. However, in a trending Bull Market it's more probable for bearish patterns to fail or get cut short and loop up in a bullish direction than it is for them to complete.
You've all seen it. It's a short seller's inadvertent contribution to overextended rallies and "all time highs".
If the FED stays the course this Wednesday and we aren't inundated with increasingly horrific covid news I suspect that wedge eventually breaks upwards, maybe even after a false break downwards to trap the obligatory shorts, and winds up racing for those lofty targets sooner than anyone expects.
Trade active: Don't take my word for it, I also have a wider channel, the 2nd part of a measured move and a 100 fib extension who agree with me :) Image attached. imgur.com/aE7LJrq
Without taking into account much needed pullbacks along the way, the index has gone all Ethan Hunt on a Mission to finish the channel it began building back in November 2019, before a Global Pandemic threatened to destroy it forever.
I know, I hear you Shorties. "It's currently wearing out its welcome in a 'bearish' rising wedge pattern, and a downward break is gonna tank it to 2500 or so, fool!"
I would agree -- IF we were in a Bear Market. However, in a trending Bull Market it's more probable for bearish patterns to fail or get cut short and loop up in a bullish direction than it is for them to complete.
You've all seen it. It's a short seller's inadvertent contribution to overextended rallies and "all time highs".
If the FED stays the course this Wednesday and we aren't inundated with increasingly horrific covid news I suspect that wedge eventually breaks upwards, maybe even after a false break downwards to trap the obligatory shorts, and winds up racing for those lofty targets sooner than anyone expects.
Trade active: Don't take my word for it, I also have a wider channel, the 2nd part of a measured move and a 100 fib extension who agree with me :) Image attached. imgur.com/aE7LJrq
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