KISS STRAT

٦ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

Can't get any more simple than this. Reductio ad absurdum. Alternation Pattern. Follow the Money.

٧ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Yeah. Lately what I noticed is the gaps dont fill right away, they just go. Up or down, gap n go.

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

October is famous for crashes but more often its a pivot reversal month.

Eyes peeled, a crash is quite possible imo.

Keep an eye on Eliades' youtube posts, here's the latest:
youtube.com/watch?v=P0NBSeWjTMg

١١ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Reversion to mean Shiller PE would take SPX down another 40% there is room to fall further, 27 >17:

Current Shiller PE Ratio: 27.04 -0.20 (-0.75%)
4:00 PM EDT, Mon Oct 10
Mean: 16.98
Median: 15.89
Min: 4.78 (Dec 1920)
Max: 44.19 (Dec 1999)

Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500.

Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10

١١ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Remember the rule of 2/3:
1/3 of the price drop in bear market occurs in first 2/3 of market time course.

SPX now down 1200 pips from ATH in 9 months.
Typical bear will last 15 months or more.

NB: 2/3 of price decline occurs in last 1/3 of time course;

Ergo SPX has a helluva drop coming in next six months.
IMpossible to say when exactly this is coming but winter 2023 could be real grim.

١١ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

تم فتح الصفقة

Flipped calls in AM puts in PM. Shorted EOD. Close below 3600 implies imminent breakdown IMO.
NB: Rejected from 3630, former support became resistance.

Gonna tank off IMO, regardless where the CPI comes in. If it's worse, going down like ton of bricks. If it's slightly better, they will say it's not good enough and go down anyway.

١٢ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Closed out all AH and happy about that, see how the clowns pump it o/n. Washout low coming imo.

١٣ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Nuts. Algos were primed to buy 350. No one saw this coming. It's a ferocious bear rally, see if it gives way to a higher low next week. No positions.

٢ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٢

تم فتح الصفقة

Nice dump. No Fed Pivot in sight. Get ready for a massive dump, again. Probly headed back to test LOTY 3500.

٢ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Holding 15 each SPY QQQ VSP and ten DIA 320 puts.

٣ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٢

ملاحظة

Gonna close these out in open, got a wee gap; take what it gives you.
Gone into strong oversold condition, some kind of bounce is likely, although it may just grind down all day.

٤ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٢

تم فتح الصفقة

Flipped P & C all day. Down up down. Never got the gap filled, pushback over and over from 15-20 pips below.
EOD sell and AH action resembles weds nite so we may expect more volatility friday and EOW risk-offf could be sharp.