In pursuit of the soft landing!
-I confess that I am extremely "pessimistic" about the situation at the moment.
-We have many key factors occurring at the same time (wars, embargoes, money printing, dollar boycott) and the consequences of these factors mostly happen after the perfect storm of key events is over.
-These facts cause great impacts in human history, where random events combine with human cognitive failures (FED, Governments) and create logical challenges that we are not able to understand (inflation, deflation, wars).
-As we look into the past, we will see numerous events similar to the current ones in which there was cognitive negligence in decision-making and the fruit harvested by these decisions were the most inhospitable possible.
- Let's go back to 1987, with the stock market crash. At the time, we had the US economy recovering from a severe recession and experiencing rapid growth. Even in August of that same year, the Dow Jones index accumulated an expressive increase of more than 40%, where it reached its historical peak at the time at 2,722 points.
-For now, the same is happening to the world, because we had a key factor called "COVID".
-This factor triggered several unexpected attitudes, inflating the prices of all products and services around the world, in which economies had records of growth in the midst of a major crisis (recession), but this inflated growth is not sustainable for a long time , and account for that event has to be paid at some point.
-We can now observe the amount of commodities that plummeted during the first months of 2023. Animal protein, oil, corn, soy, non-precious metals, all of them, without exception, had strong corrections, bringing down the quotations of several companies and these sectors.
-Will this event of falls in the main commodities mentioned above start a new price run?
-I have a thesis that with the fall of companies linked to these commodities, other companies must suffer strong corrections, especially companies linked to technology areas, where, with the correction of technology companies, commodity companies will be superior to try to hold on the index of an even greater collapse, causing the soft landing desired by the FED.
-Will we be able to have this soft landing later on? Current events point to this possible and remote possibility. What a strange thing, isn't it?
-If the soft landing really happens, I don't see the SPX index losing the 3900 region at the moment, unless we have a nice "Black Swan" hidden in some government closet!
-How about reading this analysis, because the events of that moment really held prices back!
-Do your analysis and good business.
-Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop!
-See below for other graphic reviews!
-We have many key factors occurring at the same time (wars, embargoes, money printing, dollar boycott) and the consequences of these factors mostly happen after the perfect storm of key events is over.
-These facts cause great impacts in human history, where random events combine with human cognitive failures (FED, Governments) and create logical challenges that we are not able to understand (inflation, deflation, wars).
-As we look into the past, we will see numerous events similar to the current ones in which there was cognitive negligence in decision-making and the fruit harvested by these decisions were the most inhospitable possible.
- Let's go back to 1987, with the stock market crash. At the time, we had the US economy recovering from a severe recession and experiencing rapid growth. Even in August of that same year, the Dow Jones index accumulated an expressive increase of more than 40%, where it reached its historical peak at the time at 2,722 points.
-For now, the same is happening to the world, because we had a key factor called "COVID".
-This factor triggered several unexpected attitudes, inflating the prices of all products and services around the world, in which economies had records of growth in the midst of a major crisis (recession), but this inflated growth is not sustainable for a long time , and account for that event has to be paid at some point.
-We can now observe the amount of commodities that plummeted during the first months of 2023. Animal protein, oil, corn, soy, non-precious metals, all of them, without exception, had strong corrections, bringing down the quotations of several companies and these sectors.
-Will this event of falls in the main commodities mentioned above start a new price run?
-I have a thesis that with the fall of companies linked to these commodities, other companies must suffer strong corrections, especially companies linked to technology areas, where, with the correction of technology companies, commodity companies will be superior to try to hold on the index of an even greater collapse, causing the soft landing desired by the FED.
-Will we be able to have this soft landing later on? Current events point to this possible and remote possibility. What a strange thing, isn't it?
-If the soft landing really happens, I don't see the SPX index losing the 3900 region at the moment, unless we have a nice "Black Swan" hidden in some government closet!
-How about reading this analysis, because the events of that moment really held prices back!
-Do your analysis and good business.
-Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop!
-See below for other graphic reviews!
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