SPY- Update- Top in
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Divergence
1 week & 2 days of Bearish divergence, 1 hr chart.
Daily Stochastic has touched once and crossed once. It's well above the 80, touched 100, and is starting it's decent and is currently at 98.7. IMO its Very Overbought. Since we are in consolidation and we are not trending I can have confidence in the Stochastics. The 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, and 4-hour stochastics are also in the overbought areas which definitely add an extra
Major horizontal support from the previous consolidations lows.
50 EMA Daily coming in at the current price levels
What else can I say?
VIX.. has come down and now has a lot of room that it can go up again.
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For Confirmation of the ascending wedge breakdown, use mdy, iwm and qqq in conjunction with the spy; and you can verify when all 3 of them have broken the same structure.تعليق
Oh yeah forgot to mention the Daily Declining volume- indecision/change in direction. Also, that we are currently at that infamous 21 monthly moving average. Interesting Volume on the Inverse SPY etf called SPXU. We had similar volume before and it was a change in direction but it didn't last. This time with where we are within this exhaustive ascending wedge on SPY maybe it will take and hold.
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Extra Observations. Vix is at a support area, although not super strong support it does appear to be rounding. It could be holding this volatility area and reversing signaling a possible pick up in momentum once again as it has comfortably been in high volatility ranges and consolidating.
Also, I wanted to include the other ETF's that I am watching for a confirmed breakdown of their ascending wedges and wanted to chart an extra trendline that I didn't include in my original post.
MDY
IWM *(Russell)
QQQ *(Nasdaq)
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Now that we are getting extra close to breaking one way or the other I would like to show the two support lines I have for the large ascending wedge pattern. We could break down from here, or spike up for another retest of the first support line that was broken yesterday. We are now held by the second support. These supports differ based on how you draw your lines. Wick to wick body to body etc. تعليق
Linear Vs LogThe chart above is on a liner scale.
Log chart, gives Log Support lines an extra .1% upside target
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IWM broke its smaller ascending wedge تعليق
QQQWatch for the Nasdaq to break its small timeframe supports in the 262.5
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SPYI would say the nice round number of 262 is a good breakdown support level to watch. This close today will be wild one way or the other.
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Correction- 261.36 for SPY The chart above is the SPX and they should be 1/10 ratio, but they are off a bit. So if your trading the SPY then that number is not 262, but more like 261.36
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Excellent Volume for a topping candle. Think how that's going to look on a 15 or 30 min chart. Price has now fulfilled all of its possible resistance targets. I was a little surprised. To me, this is the nail in the coffin.
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