Market sentiment remains historically bearish, with many strategists expecting new lows in the New Year. But recent price action might not be working in their favor.

The main feature on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the highs of January, March and August. SPX tried and failed to break that resistance two weeks ago. Yesterday it was right back at the line, which may suggest its relevance is fading.

The same can be said of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). In August, prices knifed lower after failing near the 200-day SMA. But this month, they’ve returned quickly for a second visit.

Next, the most recent bounce seemed to confirm the importance of support around 3910 and the 100-day SMA. (See our November 18 idea for more on those.)

Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA since October 25. That suggests the bears have been unable to take control. (The chart above illustrates with our 2 MA Ratio custom script.)

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Finally, let’s consider some history on the second chart. The current bear market is the deepest and longest-lasting pullback since 2007-2008. (We’ve gone 238 days without hitting a new 52-week high.) At this point in 2008, it would have been late September. SPX had failed to hold its 100-day SMA and was making lower highs along the 50-day SMA. The 8-day EMA / 21-day EMA ratio barely turned positive.

As we know, another 40 percent collapse followed that moment 14 years ago. But this time around, things may be playing out differently.

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