Stock market correction in 2025??
I personally believe we'll see a stock market correction in 2025.
1. 30yr treasury yield going higher while FED cut interest rates. Similar situation in 1970s and 1980s where we say a 50% correction in just 2 years in the 1970s (can't remember exact dates)
2. US 10yr/3m yield curve has turned positive. Last times it's done this has been 2000, 2008 and 2020. I'm guessing you know what happened each of those times.
3. Institutional investors increasing long contracts in the yen. The Japanese Yen is a 'risk-off' investment and investors tend to favour it when they don't have much faith in the stock market.
4. US have a volatile president in Trump. The power also seems to be getting to his head a bit - he disagrees with Fed Chair Powell over interest rates, despite not being as educated in economics. He has a lot of power right now and I don't think he will be able to stop a potential market crash for the first year or 2 of his presidency.
5. Back-to-back 20%+ years from the S&P500, could be due a pullback.
These are some reasons, I have some more but I don't want to be sat here writing all day.
Important to note that if you're a long term investor it's best to just ignore this. "Time in the markets beats timing the markets" as they say.
But if you're a day trader I wouldn't be taking many long positions on stocks this year. Could be better to start looking at opportunities in the currency markets.
Then again - you don't have to trust me. This isn't financial advice, just my opinion.
1. 30yr treasury yield going higher while FED cut interest rates. Similar situation in 1970s and 1980s where we say a 50% correction in just 2 years in the 1970s (can't remember exact dates)
2. US 10yr/3m yield curve has turned positive. Last times it's done this has been 2000, 2008 and 2020. I'm guessing you know what happened each of those times.
3. Institutional investors increasing long contracts in the yen. The Japanese Yen is a 'risk-off' investment and investors tend to favour it when they don't have much faith in the stock market.
4. US have a volatile president in Trump. The power also seems to be getting to his head a bit - he disagrees with Fed Chair Powell over interest rates, despite not being as educated in economics. He has a lot of power right now and I don't think he will be able to stop a potential market crash for the first year or 2 of his presidency.
5. Back-to-back 20%+ years from the S&P500, could be due a pullback.
These are some reasons, I have some more but I don't want to be sat here writing all day.
Important to note that if you're a long term investor it's best to just ignore this. "Time in the markets beats timing the markets" as they say.
But if you're a day trader I wouldn't be taking many long positions on stocks this year. Could be better to start looking at opportunities in the currency markets.
Then again - you don't have to trust me. This isn't financial advice, just my opinion.
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