These 2 paths are the extremes for the next 5 months.
Running a short stance, I need to have a position that survives 2155 by end of Mar15.
In both cases, I should have a pullback to 2050 by end Apr15.
If SPX trades 2150 before it trades 2050, I will be in recovery mode and would exit at 2050.
Monitor the VIX second contract:
- Now at 17.10, if it crosses below 16.40, SPX could be on the blue path.
- Although I would recover the loss/make some money at the end, my trade idea would be wrong and it have used risk for too long in negative territories.
Running a short stance, I need to have a position that survives 2155 by end of Mar15.
In both cases, I should have a pullback to 2050 by end Apr15.
If SPX trades 2150 before it trades 2050, I will be in recovery mode and would exit at 2050.
Monitor the VIX second contract:
- Now at 17.10, if it crosses below 16.40, SPX could be on the blue path.
- Although I would recover the loss/make some money at the end, my trade idea would be wrong and it have used risk for too long in negative territories.