SPX - holding shorts, assessing for the next move
تم تحديثه
Hello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish.
Master Key for zones
Previous analysis - below;
This explains in detail what is key to fully understand the scenario
Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming?
8Hour time frame. - Now a thing of the past - price began to show signs of selling directly where I expected.
Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high.
However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders.
See below for the measured update to the 8-hour rising channel. You can look for a test, retest break sell - which is known as a
The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart.
Weekly Chart
The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure.
The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. [This is now the weekly zone to add long positions].
Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached.
The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to.
The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed.
The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels.
See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation.
Entry zone?
Positions of where we will enter, based upon two scenarios.
Starting upon a clean rejection from -0.618 Fibonacci extension.
Why? Due to the highly probable imbalance which is forming upon the daily and three day charts respectively.
Fell perfectly, review the four hour.
Four Hour
SPX VS VIX
Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index.
Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors.
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish.
Master Key for zones
- Red = Three Month
- Blue = Monthly
- Purple = weekly
- Scarlet [Red] - Four day
- Orange = Daily
- Green = 8 Hour, 16hour
- Grey = 4hour
- Pink = 1 hour
Previous analysis - below;
This explains in detail what is key to fully understand the scenario
Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming?
8Hour time frame. - Now a thing of the past - price began to show signs of selling directly where I expected.
Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high.
However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders.
See below for the measured update to the 8-hour rising channel. You can look for a test, retest break sell - which is known as a
The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart.
Weekly Chart
The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure.
The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. [This is now the weekly zone to add long positions].
Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached.
The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to.
The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed.
The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels.
See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation.
Entry zone?
Positions of where we will enter, based upon two scenarios.
Starting upon a clean rejection from -0.618 Fibonacci extension.
Why? Due to the highly probable imbalance which is forming upon the daily and three day charts respectively.
Fell perfectly, review the four hour.
Four Hour
SPX VS VIX
Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index.
Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors.
Do you enjoy the setups?
*Professional analyst with 5+ years experience
*Focus on technical output not fundamentals
*Position and swing trades
*Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXI
تم إغلاق الصفقة يدويًا
caught some pips, closed, overall has not reached the ceiling yet.
منشورات ذات صلة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.