Long-term analysis of the S&P 500 index
Investors use this index for comparison in trading and stock trading, as well as to evaluate the performance of large companies
In the chart above, we have 5 price cycles, each cycle of which consists of 3 years of price movement, and we examine each cycle separately.
From 2009 to the end of 2021, the price was moving in a strong upward channel
In the first cycle, which starts from 2009 until the end of which is in 2012, we have two ascending channels and 3 corrections.
If you look at the behavior of most people over the years, you will find that their behavior is more due to the pressure of fear and greed, which is why the past of the market is important because human behavior in the face of profit and loss always shows a behavior. have given
After the first cycle, I conclude that there have been fluctuations in corporate stocks over the past three years
In the second cycle, which starts in 2012 and ends in 2015, we have a strong uptrend channel and a small correction, so we conclude that during these three years, the companies' stocks have experienced excellent growth.
In the third cycle, which starts in 2015 and ends in 2018, there is a big correction and an upward channel. If you look closely at the price drop, you will notice that the corporate investors who bought at the beginning of 2012 They have made a profit and left their trades at the beginning of 2016
That's why the third cycle started with a downward trend
In the fourth cycle, which starts from 2018 until the end of which is in 2021, initially the price grows slightly and then enters the correction phase. After a while, the price leaves its correction and slowly starts to grow.
Suddenly, a very big shock shakes the world, something that has not happened in the last few decades.
Kovid 19 contagious disease spread to most countries of the world in one year. The World Health Organization had no cure for it. They were in a state of shock. Many people lost their lives during these two years. Financial markets fell sharply. I remember the price. Oil was down $ 2, so during this cycle the biggest market downturn in the S&P 500 occurred in 2020. Finally, after a while, pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer began to develop vaccines. They were now recovering The S&P 500 index recovered sharply after its recent crash, even forming a new ceiling by the end of 2021
The beginning of the fifth cycle, which started in 2021, was initially moving in an upward channel. Suddenly, the war between Russia and Ukraine brought another shock to the world, especially the Kurdish financial markets. Oil and gold prices reached their highest level Cryptocurrency market plummeted Investors have moved out of risky assets and into safe-haven assets such as gold
The price may encounter several obstacles along the way. They can only hold the price for a while, then continue as before.
This month we are seeing an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve
This has spread another fear among investors
So we conclude the current reform resulting from the war between Russia and Ukraine
As well as raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve
In 2021, the price went out of its long-term uptrend channel. In terms of momentum, we see a stronger uptrend momentum than our previous cycles.
In terms of distance, it has come a long way without correction
So we should expect the price to correct for a while and then continue its upward trend until the end of 2024.
PLEASE LIKE AND COMMENT
Investors use this index for comparison in trading and stock trading, as well as to evaluate the performance of large companies
In the chart above, we have 5 price cycles, each cycle of which consists of 3 years of price movement, and we examine each cycle separately.
From 2009 to the end of 2021, the price was moving in a strong upward channel
In the first cycle, which starts from 2009 until the end of which is in 2012, we have two ascending channels and 3 corrections.
If you look at the behavior of most people over the years, you will find that their behavior is more due to the pressure of fear and greed, which is why the past of the market is important because human behavior in the face of profit and loss always shows a behavior. have given
After the first cycle, I conclude that there have been fluctuations in corporate stocks over the past three years
In the second cycle, which starts in 2012 and ends in 2015, we have a strong uptrend channel and a small correction, so we conclude that during these three years, the companies' stocks have experienced excellent growth.
In the third cycle, which starts in 2015 and ends in 2018, there is a big correction and an upward channel. If you look closely at the price drop, you will notice that the corporate investors who bought at the beginning of 2012 They have made a profit and left their trades at the beginning of 2016
That's why the third cycle started with a downward trend
In the fourth cycle, which starts from 2018 until the end of which is in 2021, initially the price grows slightly and then enters the correction phase. After a while, the price leaves its correction and slowly starts to grow.
Suddenly, a very big shock shakes the world, something that has not happened in the last few decades.
Kovid 19 contagious disease spread to most countries of the world in one year. The World Health Organization had no cure for it. They were in a state of shock. Many people lost their lives during these two years. Financial markets fell sharply. I remember the price. Oil was down $ 2, so during this cycle the biggest market downturn in the S&P 500 occurred in 2020. Finally, after a while, pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer began to develop vaccines. They were now recovering The S&P 500 index recovered sharply after its recent crash, even forming a new ceiling by the end of 2021
The beginning of the fifth cycle, which started in 2021, was initially moving in an upward channel. Suddenly, the war between Russia and Ukraine brought another shock to the world, especially the Kurdish financial markets. Oil and gold prices reached their highest level Cryptocurrency market plummeted Investors have moved out of risky assets and into safe-haven assets such as gold
The price may encounter several obstacles along the way. They can only hold the price for a while, then continue as before.
This month we are seeing an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve
This has spread another fear among investors
So we conclude the current reform resulting from the war between Russia and Ukraine
As well as raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve
In 2021, the price went out of its long-term uptrend channel. In terms of momentum, we see a stronger uptrend momentum than our previous cycles.
In terms of distance, it has come a long way without correction
So we should expect the price to correct for a while and then continue its upward trend until the end of 2024.
PLEASE LIKE AND COMMENT
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