Week 34 | SPY

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The anticipated bounce on Friday (today) had a bullish close. Didn't see covering yet, MM has this pretty well wrapped up with a massive options expiry in play. Looking at the charts, I think we bounce of the trend line along with the .236 Fib and possible squeeze in play for Monday. Going day by day.

The downside has a pretty big pocket of volume traded. which will act as support, for now. Watching yields as a primary indicator, along with DXY.

More charts to follow, just capturing some initial thoughts on end of week going into Monday.

١٨ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Implied Range for Mondays expirations

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١٨ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Looking at the 4H:

Gap down is unlikely Monday morning. If we do see any selling, I'd watching for 431 to enter.

١٨ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Low trading volume in the box, if we start moving into this area I'll be trading on PA on the 5 and 15, entering on good buy or sell signals.

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Cypher

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٢٣ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Wife and I are both sick, been getting to bed early and not finding time here.

Yields are holding ground, I think our bounce is limited to 440ish and down we go (bear flag), unless Powell has another plan, but I don't think things will change...



431 still in play for a bigger bounce. for now, selling any gap ups, especially anything into 440/441. Not going long until 431 is tested.

٢٤ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Bigger pop than I anticipated... I think? Now waiting on Powell. I'm def. red and treading water after 441 got punched through. Staying with my plan. My 440 PUTS are all 9/15 expiry. Mistake here on my end was pulling shorts on my 441 without checking 10Y. Had I seen the move I would have held cash. whelp. here we are....

٢٤ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Stuck with the plan, the plan paid. Closed my position for tomorrow's whipsaw. As of right now, I am targeting 431 if JPow comes in Hawkish, which I expect but I'll let the market decide.

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I don't see us gapping down in the morning, sitting on some resistance right now but DXY is still looking bullish, so any aggressive move could change. I left a few contracts open incase we do, willing take a small hit against it as a gap up seems unlikely. Outside of that, no plan tomorrow but to wait and watch. DXY and 10Y will be up, not making any moves until an aggressive, deliberate and confirmed direction is made. My guess is we pump up at open, hold until speech, and get a confirmation 30 minutes after the mic is dropped.

٢٥ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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