SPY Monthly Redux

I published this chart way back and noted at the time that I have never (since mid-nineties) seen an ascending triangle form in a downtrend. Since this was my first, I wasn't sure what the breakout (or breakdown) would be. (Note: Ascending triangle breakouts are very high probability and often are fast and furious.)

As you can see, SPY has broken out after a near year long "time" consolidation, and we now today sit near the Bulkowski target of 64% of the apex depth, which I calculated to be 454.41.

This area is also at a prior pivot, so this area is very critical -- either we fall back here, and face some consolidation, or we propel upward toward the all-time high at 479.98. At that point , it's either a double top or a resumption of prior bull trend (the yellow channel).

I just looked inside the SPY earlier today, at monthly charts, and I am concerned with the number of head & shoulder patterns that I see forming.

These are all (in the process) head & shoulder patterns: ALGN, AMT, APTV, ARE, BA, BALL, BBY, BIO, CCI, CE. I stopped there, I have seen enough. Later I will go through the entire 500 and work up a percentage of vulnerable stocks.

So if we have only a handful of stocks carrying the SPY today, which is largely the case, I remain skeptical of a longer term bull resumption, although I think the bottom of 10/2022 has been put in, unless we black swan it.