I SPY a fake out - expecting further downside

٣ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

I feel the momentum to the downside will play itself out before any meaningful rally. Small rallies such as the one today is in my view institutional rebalancing. Eventually I expect a larger relief rally but not before we touch the bottom of the channel in large part due to downside momentum.

This is a speculative, risky, and potentially a very profitable options play in my view for puts 3 weeks out.

I decided to share my perspective because I see a lot of bullish analysis today and I wanted to offer a short term bear case for balance.