SPY - Short

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So up until this AM price action was in a position to break out and above the clouds. Unfortunately, a confluence of factors have us rejecting that breakout. My experience with the 4-hr charts and Ichimoku clouds is that price action tends to flow from edge to edge. My current target is ~$381.70. I'm short @$385 with a $386.64 stop loss. I wouldn't recommend following me, since the market makers will be stop hunting shorts all morning, but I think this is a safe target to hold off on opening any new positions for the time being.

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Here comes the express elevator down. Hang on...

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They almost got me today. Guessing more than a few people flipped their longs this AM:

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Nice little megaphone. Poor shorts. You've got to have conviction in your position on days like this. Yes, we're ranging, but we're also printing lower lows and generally adhering to the downtrend.

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Market isn't sure if it wants to break thru ... but it's had its 5 touches... there's only one solution here:

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And just like that we're back in that negative price channel going back to 8:30am.

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But not without a struggle...

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Pop Quiz: Will we bounce at $383?

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Closed by shorts on the double--bottom for the day after it was apparent that prices weren't going to be marked down further today. Will consider reopening short position tomorrow. However, looking at the session volume, the bid/ask is getting pretty tight. We may break up from here. But I wouldn't expect anything until Powell speaks. I'm in cash until then.

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END OF POST

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I've hit my quota for the week. Taking off the rest of the week. Happy trading all!

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And as it always happens, you go to lunch and see the market went on ahead without you but according to your plans. haha Hope this post was able to help a few traders out with holding onto their short position or considering closing their long position. Lows will be tested tomorrow, look for V-shape bounce with lots of spring on a double-bottom divergence. I'll be at the beach.